Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Round 7

Date: 13 September 2024, Friday

Location: Latham Park (Newtown)

Referee: Livesey A. D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	S4C Clic, S4C


	Newtown		Cardiff Metropolitan

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.25	2.2
	2.85	3.4	2.3
	2.75	3.41	2.37
	2.9	3.45	2.33	Watch
	2.75	3.5	2.2
	3.22	3.45	2.09
	2.85	3.4	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.17)	3.41 ↓ (3.65)	2.26 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newtown
32.1%

Draw
27%

Cardiff Metropolitan
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

25.4%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

25%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newtown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newtown's form might have worsened.

Cardiff Metropolitan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cardiff Metropolitan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newtown, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff Metropolitan than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cardiff Metropolitan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Newtown - Cardiff Metropolitan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Swindell A. (G) 8. Evans R. 20. Harries J. 24. Hughes G. 11. Ismail Z. 10. Lock J. 9. Oswell J. 3. Roberts C. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. (C) 14. Williams A.	1. Lang A. (C) 2. Chubb M. 16. Craven C. 3. Edwards J. 7. Evans E. 10. Jones S. 8. Kabongo D. 9. Rees L. 6. Reynolds R. 11. Roscrow A. 4. Veale J.
Substitutes
17. Boakye H. 31. Guest B. 33. Hollinshead T. 26. Pryce R. 23. Sharp O. 22. Smith C. 13. Ussher S. (G)	17. Cadwallader E. 19. Clay J. 18. Gibbins C. J. 14. Morris J. 41. Saunders 21. Soady B. 29. Vincent T.
Coaches
Ruscoe S.	Jenkins R.

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newtown won 3.

Recent matches Newtown is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cardiff Metropolitan is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Newtown won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 28-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Newtown won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.09.24	Newtown - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:0 ✺
30.08.24	Haverfordwest County - Newtown	3:0 ✺
26.08.24	Barry Town United - Newtown	1:2 ✺
23.08.24	Newtown - Caernarfon Town	0:4 ✺
16.08.24	Pen-y-Bont - Newtown	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWLT
- Cardiff Metropolitan University FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.09.24	Bala Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:1 ✺
31.08.24	Caernarfon Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:2 ✺
26.08.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Haverfordwest County	0:0 ✺
23.08.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:5 ✺
16.08.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
21.04.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Newtown	1:3
09.03.24	Newtown - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:0
17.10.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Newtown	2:1
01.09.23	Newtown - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:1
15.04.23	Newtown - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:2
10.03.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Newtown	0:0
22.12.22	Cardiff Metropolitan - Newtown	2:1

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