Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 25

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Oakwell (Barnsley)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)


	Barnsley		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.75	6
	1.44	4.75	6.5	Watch
	1.56	4.19	5.26
	1.44	4.6	6.5
	1.43	4.95	6.61	Watch
	1.44	4.75	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.53)	4.64 ↑ (4.03)	6.27 ↑ (5.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barnsley
64.7%

Draw
20.3%

Crawley Town
15%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

23.1%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

22.8%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barnsley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Barnsley - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Barnsley will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Crawley will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barnsley: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Killip B. (G) 6. de Gevigney M. (C) 17. Gent G. 32. Earl J. 7. O'Keeffe C. 8. Phillips A. 50. Nwakali K. 3. Russell J. 5. Pines D. 36. Watters M. 40. Keillor-Dunn D.	1. Wollacott J. (G) 24. Mullarkey T. 3. Conroy D. (C) 5. Barker C. 45. John-Jules T. 18. Quitirna A. 19. Kelly J. 6. Anderson M. 12. Camara P. 9. Swan W. 29. Showunmi T.
Substitutes
48. Connell L. 9. Cosgrove S. 44. Humphrys S. 15. Lofthouse K. 21. McCarthy C. 4. Roberts M. 12. Smith J. (G)	16. Beach E. (G) 14. Hepburn-Murphy R. 23. Ibrahim B. 20. Mukena J. 25. Papadopoulos A. 99. Radcliffe B. 11. Roles J.
Coaches
Clarke D.	Elliot R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Russell J. ⚽, O'Keeffe C. (A),
45+1', Gent G. 🟨,
45+1', John-Jules T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', 2 - 0, Watters M. ⚽, Phillips A. (A),
54', 3 - 0, Keillor-Dunn D. ⚽,
59', Earl J. ↓, McCarthy C. ↑,
60', John-Jules T. ↓, Hepburn-Murphy R. ↑,
61', Anderson M. ↓, Ibrahim B. ↑,
61', Swan W. ↓, Radcliffe B. ↑,
64', McCarthy C. 🟨,
68', Russell J. ↓, Connell L. ↑,
68', Pines D. ↓, Roberts M. ↑,
79', Kelly J. ↓, Papadopoulos A. ↑,
81', Watters M. ↓, Cosgrove S. ↑,
81', Keillor-Dunn D. ↓, Humphrys S. ↑,
90+3', Barker C. 🟨,
90+3', Cosgrove S. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Barnsley is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Crawley is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Crawley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Crawley have a series of guest games.

In this match Barnsley is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Barnsley to win the game is with odds 1.48.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Barnsley won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:6 (average 1.3:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Barnsley won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barnsley FC
English League One
01.01.25	Barnsley - Wrexham	2:1 ✺
29.12.24	Peterborough United - Barnsley	1:3 ✺
26.12.24	Bolton Wanderers - Barnsley	1:2 ✺
21.12.24	Barnsley - Leyton Orient	0:4 ✺
14.12.24	Exeter City - Barnsley	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WWWLW
- Crawley Town
English League One
29.12.24	Exeter City - Crawley Town	4:4 ✺
26.12.24	Leyton Orient - Crawley Town	3:0 ✺
23.12.24	Crawley Town - Birmingham City	0:1 ✺
14.12.24	Peterborough United - Crawley Town	4:3 ✺
03.12.24	Charlton Athletic - Crawley Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
31.08.24	Crawley Town - Barnsley	0:3
14.02.15	Crawley Town - Barnsley	5:1
09.08.14	Barnsley - Crawley Town	0:1

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