Match Info

EFL Trophy

Date: 7 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Brisbane Road (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Leyton Orient		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.38	5	6
	1.34	5.4	6.4
	1.34	5.71	6.49
	1.64	4.21	4.61	Watch
	1.35	5.3	6.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.61)	5.12 ↑ (3.99)	6.07 ↑ (4.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leyton Orient
66.3%

Draw
18.3%

Crawley Town
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

23.1%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

22.4%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leyton Orient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leyton Orient's performance.

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leyton Orient that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	8.3%	25%

Leyton Orient - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Leyton Orient will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Crawley will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leyton Orient: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Leyton Orient (votes: 1 - 20%). Crawley (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Crawley (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Leyton Orient (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Crawley (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Cahill K. (G) 3. Adaramola T. 19. Beckles O. (C) 18. Edmonds-Green R. 4. Simpson J. 11. Mitchell D. 17. Koroma J. 28. Clare S. 15. Bakinson T. 27. Jaiyesimi D. 25. Wellens C.	34. Wollacott J. (G) 15. Radcliffe B. 3. Conroy D. (C) 2. Malone S. 23. Kotey F. 14. Flower L. 6. Anderson M. 10. Brown R. 17. Scott K. 21. Loft R. 9. Tshimanga K.
Substitutes
32. Ballard D. 34. Chinedu P. 10. Connolly A. 8. El Mizouni I. 23. Gordon L. 35. Hambury Z. 26. Phillips N. (G)	5. Barker C. 28. Flint J. 33. Heater W. (G) 8. Holohan G. 56. Robertson J. 29. Showunmi T. 27. Watson L.
Coaches
Wellens R.	Lindsey S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Flower L. ⚽, Tshimanga K. (A),
38', Anderson M. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Mitchell D. ⚽,
43', Malone S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Conroy D. ↓, Barker C. ↑,
46', Malone S. ↓, Flint J. ↑,
49', Edmonds-Green R. 🟨,
57', Loft R. ↓, Showunmi T. ↑,
59', Clare S. ↓, El Mizouni I. ↑,
75', Tshimanga K. ↓, Robertson J. ↑,
77', Jaiyesimi D. ↓, Connolly A. ↑,
77', Wellens C. ↓, Ballard D. ↑,
87', Scott K. ↓, Holohan G. ↑,
90', Koroma J. ↓, Hambury Z. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Connolly A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leyton Orient won 5.

Leyton Orient is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Crawley's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Leyton Orient is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leyton Orient won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 32:25. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Leyton Orient won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1.9:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leyton Orient
English League One
04.10.25	Cardiff City - Leyton Orient	4:3 ✺
27.09.25	Leyton Orient - Stevenage Borough	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Reading - Leyton Orient	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Leyton Orient - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Port Vale - Leyton Orient	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLLTW
- Crawley Town
English League Two
04.10.25	Cambridge United - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Crawley Town - Barrow	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Notts County - Crawley Town	4:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
16.09.25	Crawley Town - Aston Villa U21	4:2 ✺
English League Two
13.09.25	Crawley Town - Cheltenham Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.04.25	Crawley Town - Leyton Orient	1:3
26.12.24	Leyton Orient - Crawley Town	3:0
English League Two
18.02.23	Leyton Orient - Crawley Town	1:0
06.08.22	Crawley Town - Leyton Orient	0:1
30.04.22	Crawley Town - Leyton Orient	0:2
11.12.21	Leyton Orient - Crawley Town	1:2
English EFL Trophy
05.10.21	Crawley Town - Leyton Orient	0:4

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