Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 34

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Buquet R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Brazil	SportyNet
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free


	Bastia		Le Mans

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.5	2.2	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.45
	3.05	3.4	2.18
	3.35	3.33	2.28
	3.07	3.49	2.21	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.15
	3.15	3.45	2.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.85)	3.37 ↑ (3.17)	2.23 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
30.1%

Draw
27.9%

Le Mans
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

29.4%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.2%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Bastia - Le Mans Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Le Mans will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Mans: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Olmeta L. (G) 24. Meynadier T. 6. Guidi D. (C) 3. Guevara J. 5. Ariss Z. 66. Janneh J. 13. Ducrocq T. 9. Tomi F. 17. Eickmayer J. 18. Zaouai A. 33. Beliandjou R.	1. Hatfout E. (G) 31. Boisse N. 17. Yohou S. 5. Voyer H. 8. Lauray A. 18. Buades L. 29. Bretelle L. 6. Quarshie E. (C) 22. Calodat L. 9. Rabillard A. 28. Colas E.
Substitutes
28. Akueson G. 15. Bohnert F. 16. Contena S. (G) 29. Merghem M. 4. Roncaglia A. 14. Sebas J. 7. Vincent C.	11. Bourabaa A. 3. Cossier I. 55. Delbecque A. (G) 25. Gueye D. 20. Harhouz W. 12. Ribelin A. 24. Robin M.
Coaches
Ray R.	Videira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Voyer H. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Colas E. ⚽,
23', Tomi F. ↓, Sebas J. ↑,
26', Guidi D. 🟨,
40', Ariss Z. 🟨,
40', Lauray A. 🟨,
42', Colas E. ↓, Gueye D. ↑,
45+4', Ducrocq T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Guevara J. ↓, Akueson G. ↑,
60', Ducrocq T. ↓, Merghem M. ↑,
67', Quarshie E. ↓, Bourabaa A. ↑,
75', Guidi D. ↓, Roncaglia A. ↑,
75', Beliandjou R. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
83', Lauray A. ↓, Robin M. ↑,
83', Rabillard A. ↓, Harhouz W. ↑,
84', Calodat L. ↓, Ribelin A. ↑,
89', Vincent C. 🟨,
90+1', 0 - 2, Robin M. ⚽, Gueye D. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

Bastia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Le Mans is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Le Mans may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Placide J. (Injury)

There will not play in Le Mans: Eyoum T. (Inactive) Gomes M. (Ankle Injury) Hamdi M. (Injury) Vercruysse J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Bastia - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.76%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Le Mans - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.8%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
02.05.26	Guingamp - Bastia	0:1 ✺
24.04.26	Clermont - Bastia	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Bastia - Saint-Étienne	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Red Star - Bastia	4:3 ✺
03.04.26	Bastia - Amiens	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WTWLT
- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 2
02.05.26	Le Mans - Reims	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Grenoble - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
17.04.26	Le Mans - Clermont	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Boulogne - Le Mans	0:0 ✺
06.04.26	Le Mans - Pau	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
22.08.25	Le Mans - Bastia	1:0
French Ligue 3
08.02.21	Bastia - Le Mans	1:0
07.09.20	Le Mans - Bastia	1:3
Coupe De France
17.11.18	Bastia - Le Mans	2:1
French Ligue 2
04.05.12	Le Mans - Bastia	N/A

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