Match Info

ENGLAND: FA Cup - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Twerton Park (Bath)


	Bath City		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.25
	1.95	3.4	3.2
	2	3.6	3.3
	2	3.66	3.41	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.25
	2.12	3.89	3.5	Watch
	2	3.6	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.79)	3.56 ↓ (3.78)	3.32 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bath City
46.3%

Draw
25.9%

Merthyr Town
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

24.9%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

26.9%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bath City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bath City's form might have worsened.

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Merthyr Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bath City than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bath City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Merthyr Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Bath City - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

(2 - 1)

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Bath could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bath will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bath City
English National League South
07.09.24	Chelmsford City - Bath City	3:0 ✺
03.09.24	Bath City - Truro City	1:0 ✺
31.08.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Bath City	4:2 ✺
26.08.24	Bath City - Hampton & Richmond Borough	1:0 ✺
24.08.24	Tonbridge Angels - Bath City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWLWT
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
10.09.24	Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town	1:5 ✺
07.09.24	Merthyr Town - Sholing	3:0 ✺
26.08.24	Gloucester City - Merthyr Town	2:1 ✺
24.08.24	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	2:1 ✺
17.08.24	Walton & Hersham - Merthyr Town	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLWL

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