Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Allianz Arena (Munich)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Ring
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Malaysia	Astro
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	TV4
Turkey	beIN Sports 4
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Bayern Munich		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.8
	2.45	3.5	2.75
	2.48	3.55	2.85	Watch
	2.5	3.55	2.88
	2.51	3.53	2.89
	2.4	3.5	2.8
	2.56	3.58	2.9
	2.45	3.5	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.52)	3.53 ↑ (3.53)	2.84 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayern Munich
38.8%

Draw
27.3%

Arsenal
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

27.1%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

29.8%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.9%	10.8%	19.4%

Bayern Munich - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 89 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 63 - 70.8%). Arsenal will win (votes: 17 - 19.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 10.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 61.4% – 80.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neuer M. (C) 6. Kimmich J. 15. Dier E. 4. de Ligt M. 40. Mazraoui N. 27. Laimer K. 8. Goretzka L. 10. Sane L. 42. Musiala J. 22. Guerreiro R. 9. Kane H.	22. Raya D. (G) 4. White B. 6. Gabriel 2. Saliba W. 18. Tomiyasu T. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 20. Jorginho 41. Rice D. 7. Saka B. 29. Havertz K. 11. Martinelli G.
Substitutes
13. Choupo-Moting E. M. 3. Kim Min-Jae 25. Muller T. 45. Pavlovic A. 18. Peretz D. (G) 39. Tel M. 26. Ulreich S. (G) 2. Upamecano D. 17. Zaragoza B.	25. Elneny M. 9. Gabriel Jesus 31. Hein K. (G) 15. Kiwior J. 24. Nelson R. 14. Nketiah E. 5. Partey T. 1. Ramsdale A. (G) 10. Smith Rowe E. 19. Trossard L. 21. Vieira F. 35. Zinchenko O.
Coaches
Tuchel T.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Laimer K. 🟨,
63', 1 - 0, Kimmich J. ⚽, Guerreiro R. (A),
67', Martinelli G. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
68', Jorginho ↓, Gabriel Jesus ↑,
76', Mazraoui N. ↓, Kim Min-Jae ↑,
84', White B. 🟨,
86', Tomiyasu T. ↓, Nketiah E. ↑,
89', Sane L. ↓, Upamecano D. ↑,
90+2', Kimmich J. 🟨,
90+3', Gabriel Jesus 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-2.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bayern won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Bayern could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Bayern: Boey S. (Muscle Injury) Buchmann T. (Muscle Injury) Coman K. (Muscle Injury) Davies A. (Yellow Cards) Gnabry S. (Muscle Injury) Marusic G. (Knee Injury) Sarr B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Timber J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Odegaard M. (Injury) Saka B. (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Bayern won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 25-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Bayern won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
13.04.24	Bayern Munich - Köln	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.04.24	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.04.24	Heidenheim - Bayern Munich	3:2 ✺
30.03.24	Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
16.03.24	Darmstadt - Bayern Munich	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTLLW
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
14.04.24	Arsenal - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.04.24	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
06.04.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal	0:3 ✺
03.04.24	Arsenal - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
31.03.24	Manchester City - Arsenal	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
09.04.24	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	2:2
International Champions Cup
17.07.19	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	2:1
19.07.17	Bayern Munich - Arsenal	1:2 penalties
UEFA Champions League
07.03.17	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	1:5
15.02.17	Bayern Munich - Arsenal	5:1
04.11.15	Bayern Munich - Arsenal	5:1
20.10.15	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	2:0

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