Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Allianz Arena (Munich)

Referee: Scharer S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Disney+


	Bayern Munich		Inter Milan

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.8
	1.93	3.5	3.9
	2	3.55	3.85	Watch
	1.71	3.9	5
	2	3.6	3.97	Watch
	1.91	3.5	3.9
	2	3.74	3.96
	2	3.55	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.79)	3.62 ↓ (3.8)	4.03 ↓ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayern Munich
49.6%

Draw
26.6%

Inter Milan
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

25.3%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

28.5%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayern Munich, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Inter Milan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.5%	17.7%	8.8%

Bayern Munich - Inter Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 112 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 83 - 74.1%). Inter will win (votes: 10 - 8.9%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 17%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 66% – 82.2%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

TQ, OT - Inter (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Inter (1.89) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB, 1st Half - Inter (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Inter (2.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (23 of 31 users predict this - 74.19%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 40 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 23 - 57.5%). Inter (votes: 12 - 30%). Tie (votes: 5 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Urbig J. (G) 27. Laimer K. 15. Dier E. 3. Kim Min-Jae 44. Stanisic J. 6. Kimmich J. (C) 8. Goretzka L. 17. Olise M. 22. Guerreiro R. 10. Sane L. 9. Kane H.	1. Sommer Y. (G) 28. Pavard B. 15. Acerbi F. 95. Bastoni A. 36. Darmian M. 23. Barella N. 20. Calhanoglu H. 22. Mkhitaryan H. 30. Carlos Augusto 10. Martinez L. (C) 9. Thuram M.
Substitutes
43. Asp J. 23. Boey S. 7. Gnabry S. 46. Karl L. 48. Klanac L. (G) 41. Kusi Asare J. 25. Muller T. 16. Palhinha J. 18. Peretz D. (G) 24. Vidovic G.	8. Arnautovic M. 52. Berenbruch T. 31. Bisseck Y. 49. De Pieri G. 6. de Vrij S. 12. Di Gennaro R. (G) 32. Dimarco F. 16. Frattesi D. 13. Martinez J. (G) 56. Re Cecconi G. 59. Zalewski N. 54. Zanchetta M.
Coaches
Kompany V.	Inzaghi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', Kim Min-Jae 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Martinez L. ⚽, Thuram M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Martinez L. 🟨,
71', Mkhitaryan H. 🟨,
74', Mkhitaryan H. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
74', Sane L. ↓, Muller T. ↑,
74', Guerreiro R. ↓, Gnabry S. ↑,
74', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Boey S. ↑,
79', Darmian M. ↓, Bisseck Y. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Muller T. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
88', 1 - 2, Frattesi D. ⚽, Carlos Augusto (A),
89', Frattesi D. 🟨,
89', Martinez L. ↓, Zalewski N. ↑,
90+4', Zalewski N. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Bayern could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bayern is a favorite.

There will not play in Bayern: Buchmann T. (Shoulder Injury) Coman K. (Thigh Injury) Davies A. (Knee Injury) Ito H. (Foot Injury) Musiala J. (Muscle Injury) Neuer M. (Calf Injury) Pavlovic A. (Illness) Upamecano D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Inter: Asllani K. (Yellow Cards) Carboni V. (Knee Injury) Dumfries D. (Thigh Injury) Taremi M. (Muscle Injury) Zielinski P. (Calf Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bayern won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:3 (average 1.8:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Bayern won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
04.04.25	Augsburg - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
29.03.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:2 ✺
15.03.25	Union Berlin - Bayern Munich	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
08.03.25	Bayern Munich - Bochum	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWTWL
- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
05.04.25	Parma - Inter Milan	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
02.04.25	Milan - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
30.03.25	Inter Milan - Udinese	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Atalanta - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.25	Inter Milan - Feyenoord	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
01.11.22	Bayern Munich - Inter Milan	2:0
07.09.22	Inter Milan - Bayern Munich	0:2
International Champions Cup
27.07.17	Bayern Munich - Inter Milan	0:2
30.07.16	Inter Milan - Bayern Munich	1:4
Club Friendly
21.07.15	Bayern Munich - Inter Milan	1:0

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