Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 5 March 2024, Tuesday

Location: Allianz Arena (Munich)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports, Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports
Germany	Amazon Prime Video
Italy	Canale 5, Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Malaysia	Astro
Netherlands	RTL 7
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	TV4
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Bayern Munich		Lazio

	1	X	2
	1.25	6.5	10
	1.28	6	9.5
	1.29	6.2	9.7	Watch
	1.29	6.3	9.6
	1.29	6.3	9.58
	1.25	6.5	10
	1.31	6.41	10.2
	1.29	6.1	9.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.33)	6.29 ↑ (5.43)	9.77 ↑ (8.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: Univision

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Current Win Probability

Bayern Munich
74.9%

Draw
15.3%

Lazio
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.8%

17.6%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

15.2%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Lazio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bayern Munich that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.5%	4.9%	12.6%

Bayern Munich - Lazio Predictions

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (85 of 103 users predict this - 82.52%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.19% – 89.85%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neuer M. (C) 6. Kimmich J. 4. de Ligt M. 15. Dier E. 22. Guerreiro R. 45. Pavlovic A. 8. Goretzka L. 10. Sane L. 25. Muller T. 42. Musiala J. 9. Kane H.	94. Provedel I. (G) 77. Marusic A. 34. Gila M. 13. Romagnoli A. 3. Pellegrini Lu. 8. Guendouzi M. 5. Vecino M. 10. Luis Alberto 20. Zaccagni M. 17. Immobile C. (C) 7. Felipe Anderson
Substitutes
13. Choupo-Moting E. M. 19. Davies A. 7. Gnabry S. 3. Kim Min-Jae 27. Laimer K. 18. Peretz D. (G) 39. Tel M. 26. Ulreich S. (G) 17. Zaragoza B.	15. Casale N. 19. Castellanos T. 32. Cataldi D. 23. Hysaj E. 18. Isaksen G. 6. Kamada D. 29. Lazzari M. 53. Magro F. (G) 56. Napolitano L. 9. Pedro 60. Ruggeri F. 33. Sepe L. (G)
Coaches
Tuchel T.	Sarri M.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.

Bayern is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Lazio is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bayern could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Bayern have a series of guest games.

In this match Bayern is indisputable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Bayern won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Bayern won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
01.03.24	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
24.02.24	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
18.02.24	Bochum - Bayern Munich	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.02.24	Lazio - Bayern Munich	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
10.02.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TWLLL
- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
01.03.24	Lazio - Milan	0:1 ✺
26.02.24	Fiorentina - Lazio	2:1 ✺
22.02.24	Torino - Lazio	0:2 ✺
18.02.24	Lazio - Bologna	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.02.24	Lazio - Bayern Munich	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
14.02.24	Lazio - Bayern Munich	1:0
17.03.21	Bayern Munich - Lazio	2:1
23.02.21	Lazio - Bayern Munich	1:4

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