Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 18

Date: 20 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Referee: Costa Teixeira Afonso J. P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Belenenses		AVS

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.91
	3.6	3.1	1.93
	3.75	3.4	1.95	Watch
	5.05	3.69	1.72
	4.1	3.5	1.98
	3.5	3.3	1.85
	4.21	3.68	1.8
	3.65	3.3	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.98 ↓ (4.96)	3.42 ↓ (3.66)	1.89 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
23.4%

Draw
27.2%

AVS
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

25.8%

55.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.4%

25.4%

54.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AVS might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	0%	92.3%

Belenenses - AVS Predictions

Users Predictions: AVS will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Oliveira G. (G) 25. Carvalho P. 33. Correia R. (C) 37. Akas C. 48. Manso T. 20. Mica 16. Chapi 10. Tavares M. 11. Sambu M. 18. Attard C. 9. Matos R.	88. Trigueira P. (G) 2. Fonseca F. 40. Clayton 41. Correia A. 22. Leo Alaba 7. Silva L. (C) 47. Lucca J. 12. Farias E. 8. Bernardo 26. Lopes V. 18. Nene
Substitutes
6. Chaby F. 12. Dini F. 23. Fernandes X. 8. Gomes Tavares D. 22. Grilo D. (G) 5. Peres T. 21. Pina R. 99. Silva M. 19. Valente D.	20. Amorim J. 25. Dias R. 16. Mena Y. 23. Mendonca G. 6. Pacheco F. 9. Sangare B. 93. Simao (G) 5. Teixeira J. 3. Thiago Freitas
Coaches
Faisca V.	Costa J.

Preview

Belenenses is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches AVS is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match AVS is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
13.01.24	Belenenses - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
06.01.24	Benfica B - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
22.12.23	Belenenses - Santa Clara	0:0 ✺
16.12.23	Nacional - Belenenses	5:0 ✺
10.12.23	Belenenses - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLTLW
- AVS Futebol SAD
Portuguese Liga 2
14.01.24	Tondela - AVS	3:2 ✺
07.01.24	AVS - Leixões	1:3 ✺
31.12.23	Mafra - AVS	0:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
21.12.23	Benfica - AVS	4:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
16.12.23	AVS - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
12.08.23	AVS - Belenenses	1:0

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