Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 31

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Belenenses		Nacional

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.6	1.91
	3.1	3.4	1.95
	3.3	3.75	2
	3.33	4	2.06
	3.38	4.02	2.02
	3.5	3.6	1.83
	3.31	3.69	1.97
	3.25	3.65	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.8)	3.71 ↑ (3.31)	1.96 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
28%

Draw
24.9%

Nacional
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

27.5%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

27.3%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Belenenses - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Belenenses will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Nacional will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Grilo D. (G) 48. Manso T. 33. Correia R. 34. Ilori T. 5. Goncalves T. 8. Gomes Tavares D. 28. Cruz H. (C) 77. Keita M. 12. Dini F. 21. Pina R. 87. Zequinha	37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 4. Paulo Vitor 40. Ulisses 5. Jose Gomes 8. Danilovic V. 10. Esteves L. 7. Macedo R. 28. Carlos Daniel 77. Gustavo 9. Ramirez J.
Substitutes
75. Carrico T. 25. Carvalho P. 16. Chapi 3. Fabao 23. Fernandes X. 9. Matos R. 14. Oliveira G. (G) 11. Sambu M. 19. Valente D.	71. Diga 99. Dudu 1. Encarnacao R. (G) 20. Jota Garces 21. Marakis S. 3. Pola J. 18. Sousa A. 55. Sousa A. 11. Witi
Coaches
Barreto M.	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
9', 0 - 1, Ramirez J. ⚽, Esteves L. (A),
19', 0 - 2, Gustavo ⚽, Carlos Daniel (A),
21', Danilovic V. 🟨,
36', 0 - 3, Macedo R. ⚽, Esteves L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Dini F. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
57', Goncalves T. 🟨,
63', Correia R. 🟨,
70', Macedo R. ↓, Witi ↑,
70', Paulo Vitor ↓, Pola J. ↑,
70', Carlos Daniel ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
76', Zequinha ↓, Fernandes X. ↑,
76', Cruz H. ↓, Carvalho P. ↑,
78', Gustavo ↓, Dudu ↑,
82', Danilovic V. ↓, Marakis S. ↑,
84', Goncalves T. ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 3, Sambu M. ⚽,

Preview

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Belenenses could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nacional will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
21.04.24	Oliveirense - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
13.04.24	Belenenses - Académico de Viseu	1:0 ✺
06.04.24	Penafiel - Belenenses	3:0 ✺
29.03.24	Belenenses - Feirense	3:1 ✺
18.03.24	Vilaverdense - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWLWT
- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
22.04.24	Nacional - Benfica B	3:1 ✺
14.04.24	Paços de Ferreira - Nacional	1:1 ✺
06.04.24	Nacional - AVS	2:1 ✺
30.03.24	Leiria - Nacional	1:1 ✺
17.03.24	Santa Clara - Nacional	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
16.12.23	Nacional - Belenenses	5:0

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