Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 18

Date: 18 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Modena		Benevento

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	3	Watch
	2.35	3.2	3
	2.4	3.1	3
	2.46	3	2.95
	2.56	3.11	3.17
	2.45	3	3
	2.42	3.13	3.06	Watch
	2.48	3.15	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.62)	3.09 ↓ (3.1)	3.02 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
38.4%

Draw
30.4%

Benevento
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

30%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

29.3%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Benevento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Modena - Benevento Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 12 - 22.2%). Benevento will win (votes: 6 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 36 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 54.1% – 79.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 13 and 12).

Modena has the most likely position - 15 (8.76%), has project points - 47, has currently - 21, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (18%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Benevento has the most likely position - 11 (8.08%), has project points - 51, has currently - 21, has a small chance of relegated (8%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (35%), has a small chance of promoted (9%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 32, small importance 27, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Modena is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Benevento is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
11.12.22	Bari - Modena	4:1 ✺
08.12.22	Modena - Venezia	2:2 ✺
04.12.22	SPAL - Modena	2:3 ✺
26.11.22	Parma - Modena	1:2 ✺
12.11.22	Modena - Perugia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 LTWWT
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
11.12.22	Benevento - Cittadella	1:0 ✺
08.12.22	Parma - Benevento	0:1 ✺
04.12.22	Benevento - Palermo	0:1 ✺
27.11.22	Reggina - Benevento	2:2 ✺
12.11.22	SPAL - Benevento	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWLTW

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