Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 12

Date: 9 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo (Venice)

Referee: Chiffi D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	ESPN 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 5
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Italy	DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 1
Mexico	ESPN
Norway	VG+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	ESPN 4 South
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 2
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Venezia		Parma

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.5	3.1	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3.1
	2.28	3.45	3.05
	2.31	3.5	3.26
	2.28	3.45	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3.2
	2.31	3.59	3.3	Watch
	2.3	3.5	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.59)	3.47 ↓ (3.52)	3.17 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venezia
42.1%

Draw
27.6%

Parma
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

27.2%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

27.7%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Venezia's performance.

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Parma might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Venezia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Parma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.7%	48.4%	12.9%

Venezia - Parma Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Venezia will win (votes: 12 - 38.7%). Parma will win (votes: 4 - 12.9%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 48.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.8% – 66%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Stankovic F. (G) 27. Candela A. 30. Svoboda M. 4. Idzes J. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 32. Duncan A. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 5. Haps R. 6. Busio G. 11. Oristanio G. 20. Pohjanpalo J. (C)	31. Suzuki Z. (G) 20. Hainaut A. 15. Del Prato E. (C) 46. Leoni G. 14. Valeri E. 16. Keita M. 19. Sohm S. 98. Man D. 28. Mihaila V. 22. Cancellieri M. 7. Benedyczak A.
Substitutes
15. Altare G. 38. Andersen M. K. 79. Carboni F. 22. Crnigoj D. 97. Doumbia I. 80. El Haddad S. 23. Grandi M. (G) 9. Gytkjaer C. 1. Joronen J. (G) 45. Raimondo A. 21. Sagrado R. 25. Schingtienne J. 33. Sverko M. 10. Yeboah J. 7. Zampano F.	11. Almqvist P. 4. Balogh B. 13. Bonny A. 23. Camara D. 9. Charpentier G. 1. Chichizola L. (G) 40. Corvi E. (G) 26. Coulibaly W. 77. Di Chiara G. 8. Estevez N. 61. Haj Mohamed A.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Pecchia F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Nicolussi Caviglia H. ⚽, Oristanio G. (A),
17', 1 - 1, Valeri E. ⚽, Man D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Benedyczak A. ↓, Charpentier G. ↑,
46', Ellertsson M. E. ↓, Zampano F. ↑,
51', Cancellieri M. 🟨,
65', Duncan A. ↓, Andersen M. K. ↑,
65', Keita M. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
65', Leoni G. ↓, Balogh B. ↑,
65', Mihaila V. ↓, Bonny A. ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Bonny A. ⚽,
74', Man D. ↓, Coulibaly W. ↑,
74', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Yeboah J. ↑,
84', Andersen M. K. 🟨,
85', Candela A. ↓, Carboni F. ↑,
85', Haps R. ↓, Gytkjaer C. ↑,
90', Charpentier G. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Venezia won 1.

Venezia is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Parma is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Parma: Bernabe A. (Muscle Injury) Circati A. (Knee Injury) Kowalski M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Venezia: Bjarkason B. (Hernia) Sverko M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Parma: Benedyczak A. (Ankle Injury) Estevez N. (Muscle Injury) Hernani (Injury) Osorio Y. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Venezia won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13:16 (average 1.4:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Venezia won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venezia FC
Italian Serie A
03.11.24	Inter Milan - Venezia	1:0 ✺
30.10.24	Venezia - Udinese	3:2 ✺
27.10.24	Monza - Venezia	2:2 ✺
20.10.24	Venezia - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
04.10.24	Verona - Venezia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWTLL
- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
04.11.24	Parma - Genoa	0:1 ✺
30.10.24	Juventus - Parma	2:2 ✺
27.10.24	Parma - Empoli	1:1 ✺
19.10.24	Como - Parma	1:1 ✺
06.10.24	Bologna - Parma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
03.02.24	Parma - Venezia	2:1
07.10.23	Venezia - Parma	3:2
19.05.23	Parma - Venezia	2:1
26.12.22	Venezia - Parma	2:2
Coppa Italia
17.08.19	Parma - Venezia	3:1
Italian Serie B
23.02.18	Parma - Venezia	1:1
23.09.17	Venezia - Parma	0:1

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