Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Denmark	Disney+
Germany	Laola1
Portugal	SIC
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Benfica		AGF Aarhus

	1	X	2
	1.10	8.50	19.00	Watch
	1.13	9.25	18.00
	1.15	6.6	16	Watch
	1.14	8.85	14.71
	1.15	8.37	15.05	Watch
	1.12	8.75	14
	1.14	10.1	17.5
	1.13	8.2	15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↓ (1.15)	8.58 ↓ (9.7)	16.16 ↓ (19.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
83.2%

Draw
11%

AGF Aarhus
5.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

85%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

AGF Aarhus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	8.3%	0%

Benfica - AGF Aarhus Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 22 - 91.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 80.7% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Soares S. (G) 6. Bah A. 44. Araujo T. (C) 2. Lenglet C. 26. Dahl S. 18. Barreiro L. 5. Barrenechea E. 27. Rafa Silva 10. Sudakov G. 25. Prestianni G. 14. Pavlidis V.	21. Hedenstad M. (G) 25. Rosler C. 44. Camara M. 19. Kahl E. 26. Andersen J. 8. Jorgensen S. 10. Arnstad K. (C) 4. Knudsen M. 39. Emmery F. 31. Bech T. 28. Bogere J.
Substitutes
72. Anisio 8. Aursnes F. 58. Banjaqui D. 22. Duran J. 33. Gabriel Indio 13. Kaminski J. 11. Lukebakio D. 16. Manu Silva 62. Neto J. 20. Rios R. 21. Schjelderup A. 1. Trubin A. (G)	23. Anderson M. 33. Callo L. 29. Carstensen R. 1. Hansen J. (G) 16. Jonsson J. 11. Links G. 14. Molgaard T. 13. Serra J. 7. Solbakken M. 45. Storch C. 27. Tchamche S. 42. van der Raad M. (G)
Coaches
Silva M.	Poulsen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Rafa Silva ⚽,
9', Barreiro L. 🟨,
24', Araujo T. 🟨,
31', 2 - 0, Barreiro L. ⚽,
36', 2 - 1, Jorgensen S. ⚽, Andersen J. (A),
45+2', 3 - 1, Pavlidis V. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Rosler C. ↓, Carstensen R. ↑,
57', Jorgensen S. ↓, Tchamche S. ↑,
66', Barreiro L. ↓, Rios R. ↑,
72', Prestianni G. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
72', Pavlidis V. ↓, Duran J. ↑,
73', Emmery F. ↓, Links G. ↑,
73', Knudsen M. ↓, Jonsson J. ↑,
81', Bogere J. ↓, Anderson M. ↑,
83', Tchamche S. 🟨,
84', Rafa Silva ↓, Kaminski J. ↑,
84', Sudakov G. ↓, Aursnes F. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Benfica is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Aarhus has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Aarhus has had a series of away games.

In this match, Benfica is the clear favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Benfica: 7.38%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	2:0	2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
17.08.26	Casa Pia - Benfica	0:7 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.08.26	Hearts - Benfica	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.08.26	Benfica - Académico de Viseu	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.26	Benfica - Hearts	6:1 ✺
30.07.26	Benfica - St. Gallen	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WTTWW
- AGF Aarhus
Danish Superliga
14.08.26	Viborg - AGF Aarhus	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Sabah - AGF Aarhus	4:0 ✺
05.08.26	AGF Aarhus - Sabah	2:1 ✺
Danish Superliga
01.08.26	Lyngby BK - AGF Aarhus	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.07.26	Lech Poznań - AGF Aarhus	1:5 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLWTW

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