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Current Win Probability
Benfica 52.8%
Draw 25.2%
Olympique Marseille 22%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
47.1%
25.9%
26.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
46.9%
26%
27%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica's performance.
Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-5.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+5%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
81.4%
13.4%
5.2%
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Predictions
Users Predictions:
Benfica will win
(79 of 97 users predict this - 81.44%). Confidence interval (95%): 73.7% – 89.18%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 6. Bah A. 4. Antonio Silva 30. Otamendi N. (C) 8. Aursnes F. 87. Neves J. 61. Florentino 11. Di Maria A. 27. Rafa Silva 7. David Neres 19. Tengstedt C.
16. Lopez P. (G) 99. Mbemba Ch. 5. Balerdi L. 4. Gigot S. (C) 3. Merlin Q. 44. Luis Henrique 27. Veretout J. 19. Kondogbia G. 11. Harit A. 14. Moumbagna F. 10. Aubameyang P.
Substitutes
44. Araujo T. 9. Cabral A. 3. Carreras A. 75. Gomes A. (G) 47. Gouveia T. 20. Joao Mario 10. Kokcu O. 36. Marcos Leonardo 5. Morato 32. Rollheiser B. 24. Soares S. (G)
36. Blanco R. (G) 20. Correa J. 49. Daou R. 62. Murillo M. 29. Ndiaye I. 8. Ounahi A. 48. Said M'Madi Y. 37. Soglo E.
Coaches
Schmidt R.
Gasset J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Rafa Silva ⚽, Tengstedt C. (A),
18', David Neres 🟨,
45+2', Merlin Q. ↓, Ndiaye I. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 2 - 0, Di Maria A. ⚽, David Neres (A),
54', Moumbagna F. ↓, Ounahi A. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Ounahi A. (A),
67', Mbemba Ch. ↓, Soglo E. ↑,
71', David Neres ↓, Joao Mario ↑,
71', Tengstedt C. ↓, Marcos Leonardo ↑,
Preview
1st leg.
Benfica is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Marseille is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Marseille could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Benfica is a favorite.
There will not play in Marseille: Murillo M.
(Muscle Injury)
Nadir B.
(Knee Injury)
Onana J.
(Muscle Injury)
Rongier V.
(Knee Injury)
Ruiz P.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Marseille: Clauss J.
(Muscle Injury)
Ngapandouetnbu S.
(Injury)
Last 2 head-to-head matches Benfica won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.
Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.
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Watch
Trubin A. (G) 
Bah A. 
Antonio Silva 
Otamendi N. (C) 
Aursnes F. 
David Neres 
Lopez P. (G) 
Mbemba Ch. 
Gigot S. (C) 
Kondogbia G. 
Harit A. 
Moumbagna F. 
Aubameyang P. 
Kokcu O. 
Daou R. 
Murillo M. 
Ndiaye I. 
Soglo E. 
Schmidt R. 
