Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 April 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport
Brazil	16:00	ESPN 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
Italy	21:00	Sky Sport
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Poland	21:00	Viaplay
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
United Kingdom	20:00	TNT Sports


	Benfica		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.5
	1.8	3.8	4.2
	1.85	3.8	4.3	Watch
	1.86	3.83	4.51
	1.83	3.83	4.52
	1.8	3.8	4.33
	1.86	4.07	4.32
	1.81	3.85	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.03)	3.82 ↑ (3.68)	4.39 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Benfica
52.8%

Draw
25.2%

Olympique Marseille
22%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.1%

25.9%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

26%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica's performance.

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.4%	13.4%	5.2%

Benfica - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (79 of 97 users predict this - 81.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.7% – 89.18%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 6. Bah A. 4. Antonio Silva 30. Otamendi N. (C) 8. Aursnes F. 87. Neves J. 61. Florentino 11. Di Maria A. 27. Rafa Silva 7. David Neres 19. Tengstedt C.	16. Lopez P. (G) 99. Mbemba Ch. 5. Balerdi L. 4. Gigot S. (C) 3. Merlin Q. 44. Luis Henrique 27. Veretout J. 19. Kondogbia G. 11. Harit A. 14. Moumbagna F. 10. Aubameyang P.
Substitutes
44. Araujo T. 9. Cabral A. 3. Carreras A. 75. Gomes A. (G) 47. Gouveia T. 20. Joao Mario 10. Kokcu O. 36. Marcos Leonardo 5. Morato 32. Rollheiser B. 24. Soares S. (G)	36. Blanco R. (G) 20. Correa J. 49. Daou R. 62. Murillo M. 29. Ndiaye I. 8. Ounahi A. 48. Said M'Madi Y. 37. Soglo E.
Coaches
Schmidt R.	Gasset J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Rafa Silva ⚽, Tengstedt C. (A),
18', David Neres 🟨,
45+2', Merlin Q. ↓, Ndiaye I. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 2 - 0, Di Maria A. ⚽, David Neres (A),
54', Moumbagna F. ↓, Ounahi A. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Ounahi A. (A),
67', Mbemba Ch. ↓, Soglo E. ↑,
71', David Neres ↓, Joao Mario ↑,
71', Tengstedt C. ↓, Marcos Leonardo ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Benfica is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Marseille is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Marseille could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Benfica is a favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Murillo M. (Muscle Injury) Nadir B. (Knee Injury) Onana J. (Muscle Injury) Rongier V. (Knee Injury) Ruiz P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Clauss J. (Muscle Injury) Ngapandouetnbu S. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Benfica won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
06.04.24	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
02.04.24	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	2:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
29.03.24	Benfica - Chaves	1:0 ✺
17.03.24	Casa Pia - Benfica	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
14.03.24	Glasgow Rangers - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTWWW
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
05.04.24	Lille - Olympique Marseille	3:1 ✺
31.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2 ✺
17.03.24	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
14.03.24	Villarreal - Olympique Marseille	3:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
10.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Nantes	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
25.07.21	Benfica - Olympique Marseille	1:1
23.07.14	Olympique Marseille - Benfica	2:1
13.07.12	Olympique Marseille - Benfica	N/A

Upcoming Matches