Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 15 February 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Benfica		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.75	10
	1.31	5.5	9.5
	1.28	6	11	Watch
	1.29	5.7	10.5
	1.31	5.76	10.14
	1.25	5.5	11
	1.31	6.08	11.1
	1.31	6	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.39)	5.79 ↑ (4.85)	10.41 ↑ (8.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
74.2%

Draw
16.6%

Toulouse
9.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

19.7%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

19.1%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica's performance.

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.9%	8.2%	5.9%

Benfica - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (73 of 85 users predict this - 85.88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.48% – 93.28%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 8. Aursnes F. 4. Antonio Silva 30. Otamendi N. (C) 3. Carreras A. 87. Neves J. 10. Kokcu O. 11. Di Maria A. 27. Rafa Silva 20. Joao Mario 9. Cabral A.	50. Restes G. (G) 3. Desler M. 6. Costa L. 2. Nicolaisen R. 23. Diarra M. 4. Spierings S. 8. Sierro V. (C) 15. Donnum A. 37. Gboho Y. 17. Suazo G. 9. Dallinga T.
Substitutes
44. Araujo T. 6. Bah A. 7. David Neres 61. Florentino 75. Gomes A. (G) 47. Gouveia T. 36. Marcos Leonardo 5. Morato 32. Rollheiser B. 24. Soares S. (G) 19. Tengstedt C.	80. Babicka S. 24. Casseres C. 11. Cesar 10. Cissoko I. 30. Dominguez A. 12. Kamanzi W. 40. Lacombe J. (G) 19. Magri F. 13. Mawissa Elebi C. 22. Skytta N.
Coaches
Schmidt R.	Martinez C.

Preview

1st leg.

Benfica is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Toulouse is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Benfica could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Benfica is certain favorite.

There will not play in Benfica: Bernat J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Aboukhlal Z. (Knee Injury) Genreau D. (Hernia) Keben K. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
11.02.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
08.02.24	Vizela - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.02.24	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
29.01.24	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica	1:4 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
24.01.24	Benfica - Estoril Praia	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWWWL
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
11.02.24	Toulouse - Nantes	1:2 ✺
04.02.24	Reims - Toulouse	2:3 ✺
28.01.24	Toulouse - Lens	0:2 ✺
Coupe De France
21.01.24	Rouen FC - Toulouse	4:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
14.01.24	Metz - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWLLW

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