Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 6

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Toulouse		Nantes

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.72	3.7	4.9
	1.73	3.75	5.5
	1.95	2.82	5.11	Watch
	1.74	3.69	5.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.77)	3.51 ↓ (3.6)	5.23 ↑ (4.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
54.3%

Draw
27.3%

Nantes
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

26.3%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

26.2%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Nantes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	0%	30.8%

Toulouse - Nantes Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Nantes will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Toulouse (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Nantes (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Nantes (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 15. Donnum A. 77. Sauer M. 17. Francis A. 19. Sidibe D. 20. Emersonn 9. Magri F. 12. Kamanzi W.	1. Lopes A. (G) 98. Amian K. (C) 6. Awaziem C. 78. Tati T. 66. Leroux L. 80. Mwanga J. 10. Abline M. 8. Lepenant J. 17. Tabibou D. 15. Lahdo M. 14. Camara A.
Substitutes
23. Casseres C. 31. Edjouma N. 25. Efuele F. 10. Gboho Y. 16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 35. Koumbassa S. 24. Methalie D. 7. Vignolo J.	90. Benhattab Y. 30. Carlgren P. (G) 3. Cozza N. 19. El Arabi Y. 11. Guirassy B. 7. Hong Hyun-Seok 5. Kwon Hyeok-Kyu 31. Mostafa Mohamed 26. Radakovic U.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+3', 0 - 1, Lahdo M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Camara A. ↓, Benhattab Y. ↑,
46', Emersonn ↓, Gboho Y. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Gboho Y. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),
58', Donnum A. 🟨,
58', Lopes A. 🟨,
61', 1 - 2, Leroux L. ⚽, Lepenant J. (A),
62', Francis A. ↓, Casseres C. ↑,
66', Amian K. 🟨,
66', 2 - 2, Donnum A. (Pen),
73', Cresswell C. 🟨,
73', Lahdo M. ↓, Guirassy B. ↑,
73', Tabibou D. ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
76', Kamanzi W. ↓, Methalie D. ↑,
81', Leroux L. 🟨,
84', Lepenant J. ↓, Kwon Hyeok-Kyu ↑,
86', Sidibe D. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
89', Abline M. ↓, El Arabi Y. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.

In recent matches, Toulouse has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nantes is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Toulouse is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury) Vossah A. (Red Card)

There will not play in Nantes: Coquelin F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toulouse: Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.4:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
21.09.25	Auxerre - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Lille - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	3:6 ✺
24.08.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Nice - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLLWW
- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
20.09.25	Nantes - Rennes	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Nice - Nantes	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Nantes - Auxerre	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Strasbourg - Nantes	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
27.04.25	Nantes - Toulouse	0:0
18.08.24	Toulouse - Nantes	0:0
11.02.24	Toulouse - Nantes	1:2
13.08.23	Nantes - Toulouse	1:2
14.05.23	Toulouse - Nantes	0:0
Coupe De France
29.04.23	Nantes - Toulouse	1:5
French Ligue 1
28.08.22	Nantes - Toulouse	3:1

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