Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 13

Date: 22 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham)

Referee: Martin S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Birmingham City		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.33
	1.78	3.7	4.1
	1.85	3.75	4	Watch
	1.84	3.74	4.33
	1.84	3.64	4.03	Watch
	1.8	3.75	4.2
	1.84	3.82	4.05	Watch
	1.85	3.75	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.89)	3.72 ↑ (3.68)	4.13 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
51.7%

Draw
25.4%

Bolton Wanderers
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

25.6%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

25.1%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Bolton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Birmingham City - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: Birmingham City will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Allsop R. (G) 2. Laird E. 4. Klarer C. (C) 25. Davies B. 20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 13. Paik Seung-Ho 14. Anderson K. 18. Willumsson W. T. 7. Hansson E. 9. May A.	20. Southwood L. (G) 12. Dacres-Cogley J. 5. Santos R. 6. Johnston G. 27. Williams R. 22. Dempsey K. 8. Sheehan J. 28. Matete J. 37. Arfield S. 10. Charles D. 23. Schon S.
Substitutes
17. Dykes L. 19. Gardner-Hickman T. 12. Leonard M. 45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G) 5. Sanderson D. 28. Stansfield J. 33. Yokoyama A.	9. Adeboyejo V. 19. Collins A. 15. Forrester W. 46. Hutchinson L. (G) 52. Inwood S. 17. Lolos K. 45. McAtee J.
Coaches
Davies C.	Evatt I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Iwata T. ⚽,
18', Dempsey K. 🟨,
20', Hansson E. ↓, Leonard M. ↑,
24', Dacres-Cogley J. 🟨,
39', Matete J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Dempsey K. ↓, McAtee J. ↑,
56', Arfield S. ↓, Collins A. ↑,
56', Charles D. ↓, Adeboyejo V. ↑,
64', Laird E. ↓, Gardner-Hickman T. ↑,
64', May A. ↓, Stansfield J. ↑,
69', Williams R. ↓, Forrester W. ↑,
78', McAtee J. 🟨,
83', 2 - 0, Stansfield J. (Pen),
86', Anderson K. ↓, Yokoyama A. ↑,
86', Paik Seung-Ho ↓, Dykes L. ↑,
87', Klarer C. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Birmingham won 2.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

In this match Birmingham is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Birmingham won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 10:11 (average 0.8:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Birmingham won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:5 (average 0.7:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English League One
19.10.24	Lincoln City - Birmingham City	1:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
08.10.24	Shrewsbury Town - Birmingham City	0:4 ✺
English League One
05.10.24	Charlton Athletic - Birmingham City	1:0 ✺
01.10.24	Birmingham City - Huddersfield Town	1:0 ✺
28.09.24	Birmingham City - Peterborough United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLWW
- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
19.10.24	Bolton Wanderers - Burton Albion	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
08.10.24	Bolton Wanderers - Aston Villa U21	1:2 penalties ✺
English League One
05.10.24	Bolton Wanderers - Shrewsbury Town	2:2 ✺
01.10.24	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	2:4 ✺
28.09.24	Crawley Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
12.02.19	Birmingham City - Bolton Wanderers	0:1
22.08.18	Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City	1:0
03.04.18	Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City	0:1
15.08.17	Birmingham City - Bolton Wanderers	0:0
23.02.16	Birmingham City - Bolton Wanderers	1:0
20.10.15	Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City	0:1
02.05.15	Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City	0:1

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