Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 16

Date: 11 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham)


	Birmingham City		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	7	Watch
	1.47	4.1	7
	1.5	4	7	Watch
	1.51	4	7.48
	1.52	3.77	7.07	Watch
	1.44	3.9	7.5
	1.51	3.98	7.21	Watch
	1.5	4	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.42)	3.96 ↓ (4.46)	7.16 ↓ (7.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
63%

Draw
23.8%

Stevenage Borough
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

21%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

20.1%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Birmingham City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	13.3%	0%

Birmingham City - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: Birmingham City will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Allsop R. (G) 23. Sampsted A. 4. Klarer C. (C) 25. Davies B. 20. Cochrane A. 30. Dowell K. 24. Iwata T. 18. Willumsson W. T. 13. Paik Seung-Ho 7. Hansson E. 28. Stansfield J.	13. Cooper M. (G) 7. Freeman N. 15. Goode C. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 3. Butler D. 22. Phillips D. 10. Kemp D. 23. Thompson L. 26. King E. 27. Hanlan B. 19. Reid J.
Substitutes
14. Anderson K. 6. Bielik K. 31. Hanley G. 10. Jutkiewicz L. 12. Leonard M. 9. May A. 45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G)	9. Appere L. 1. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 16. Freestone L. 17. List E. 6. Sweeney D. 18. White H. 30. Young J.
Coaches
Davies C.	Revell A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Dowell K. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Hansson E. ↓, May A. ↑,
47', 2 - 0, Paik Seung-Ho ⚽, May A. (A),
61', Iwata T. 🟨,
63', Iwata T. ↓, Leonard M. ↑,
64', Stansfield J. 🟨,
66', King E. ↓, List E. ↑,
66', Hanlan B. ↓, Appere L. ↑,
69', Stansfield J. ↓, Anderson K. ↑,
70', Sampsted A. ↓, Bielik K. ↑,
76', Thompson L. ↓, White H. ↑,
84', Reid J. ↓, Young J. ↑,
84', Piergianni C. ↓, Sweeney D. ↑,
90', Allsop R. 🟨,
90', Phillips D. 🟨,
90+4', May A. ↓, Hanley G. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Young J. ⚽,

Preview

Postponed due to international match.

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 14).

Birmingham is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Stevenage is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Stevenage could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Stevenage have a series of home games.

In this match Birmingham is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Birmingham to win the game is with odds 1.41.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English League One
08.03.25	Birmingham City - Lincoln City	1:0 ✺
04.03.25	Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City	3:1 ✺
01.03.25	Birmingham City - Wycombe Wanderers	1:0 ✺
25.02.25	Birmingham City - Leyton Orient	2:0 ✺
22.02.25	Reading - Birmingham City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWWT
- Stevenage Borough
English League One
08.03.25	Stevenage Borough - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
04.03.25	Cambridge United - Stevenage Borough	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Stevenage Borough - Huddersfield Town	1:2 ✺
22.02.25	Shrewsbury Town - Stevenage Borough	0:1 ✺
18.02.25	Stevenage Borough - Burton Albion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
04.02.25	Stevenage Borough - Birmingham City	0:1

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