Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 35

Date: 4 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Bolton Wanderers		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.4	1.98
	3.6	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.79	3.4	2.1
	3.62	3.31	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2.1
	3.65	3.45	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.4	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.63 ↓ (3.7)	3.36 ↓ (3.41)	2.05 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
26%

Draw
28.1%

Birmingham City
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

27.6%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

26.7%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	22.2%	50%

Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Bolton will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Birmingham will win (votes: 9 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Southwood L. (G) 18. Toal E. 21. Forino-Joseph C. 6. Johnston G. 12. Dacres-Cogley J. 16. Morley A. 4. Thomason G. (C) 14. Osei-Tutu J. 45. McAtee J. 7. Mendes C. 19. Collins A.	45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G) 19. Gardner-Hickman T. 4. Klarer C. (C) 25. Davies B. 20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 13. Paik Seung-Ho 30. Dowell K. 18. Willumsson W. T. 7. Hansson E. 9. May A.
Substitutes
1. Baxter N. (G) 17. Lolos K. 28. Matete J. 3. Murphy A. 31. Randall J. 23. Schon S. 8. Sheehan J.	6. Bielik K. 31. Hanley G. 26. Harris L. 10. Jutkiewicz L. 48. Mayo B. (G) 23. Sampsted A. 28. Stansfield J.
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Hansson E. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, McAtee J. ⚽, Dacres-Cogley J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', Gardner-Hickman T. 🟨,
49', 2 - 1, Thomason G. ⚽, McAtee J. (A),
53', McAtee J. 🟨,
56', Gardner-Hickman T. ↓, Sampsted A. ↑,
56', Hansson E. ↓, Harris L. ↑,
61', Morley A. 🟨,
67', Dowell K. ↓, Stansfield J. ↑,
68', May A. ↓, Jutkiewicz L. ↑,
69', Mendes C. ↓, Randall J. ↑,
71', 3 - 1, Collins A. ⚽, Randall J. (A),
81', Iwata T. ↓, Bielik K. ↑,
84', McAtee J. ↓, Lolos K. ↑,
90+1', Thomason G. ↓, Matete J. ↑,
90+1', Morley A. ↓, Sheehan J. ↑,
90+8', Harris L. 🟨,
90+8', Osei-Tutu J. 🟨,
90+8', Johnston G. 🟨,
90+8', Forino-Joseph C. 🟨,
90+9', Klarer C. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bolton won 2.

Bolton is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Birmingham is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Birmingham could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Birmingham have a series of home games.

Birmingham will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bolton: Adeboyejo V. (Injury) Dempsey K. (Injury) Etete K. (Injury) Santos R. (Injury)

There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Injury) Dykes L. (Injury) Leonard M. (Inactive) Wright S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bolton: Jones G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Birmingham: Allsop R. (Injury) Anderson K. (Injury) Laird E. (Injury) Stansfield J. (Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Bolton won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:12 (average 0.8:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Bolton won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6:6 (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Birmingham City - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.99%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
01.03.25	Wrexham - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Bolton Wanderers - Leyton Orient	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	Shrewsbury Town - Bolton Wanderers	2:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.02.25	Wrexham - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
English League One
08.02.25	Bolton Wanderers - Crawley Town	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWWLW
- Birmingham City
English League One
01.03.25	Birmingham City - Wycombe Wanderers	1:0 ✺
25.02.25	Birmingham City - Leyton Orient	2:0 ✺
22.02.25	Reading - Birmingham City	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.02.25	Birmingham City - Bradford City	2:1 ✺
English League One
15.02.25	Birmingham City - Charlton Athletic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
22.10.24	Birmingham City - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
English League Championship
12.02.19	Birmingham City - Bolton Wanderers	0:1
22.08.18	Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City	1:0
03.04.18	Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City	0:1
15.08.17	Birmingham City - Bolton Wanderers	0:0
23.02.16	Birmingham City - Bolton Wanderers	1:0
20.10.15	Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City	0:1

Upcoming Matches