Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 26

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Ewood Park (Blackburn)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Blackburn Rovers		Burnley

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.2	2.2	Watch
	3.6	3	2.2
	3.53	3.14	2.22
	3.48	3.16	2.22	Watch
	3.6	3.1	2.2
	3.6	3.13	2.2	Watch
	3.53	3.14	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (2.96)	3.12 ↓ (3.24)	2.21 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Blackburn Rovers
26.7%

Draw
30.3%

Burnley
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29.1%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

29.4%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Blackburn Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blackburn Rovers than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Blackburn Rovers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19%	28.6%	52.4%

Blackburn Rovers - Burnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Blackburn will win (votes: 4 - 19%). Burnley will win (votes: 11 - 52.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burnley: 31% – 73.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pears A. (G) 2. Brittain C. 5. Hyam D. 15. Batth D. 24. Beck O. 6. Tronstad S. (C) 42. Baker L. 33. Cozier-Duberry A. 8. Cantwell T. 10. Dolan T. 9. Gueye M.	1. Trafford J. (G) 14. Roberts C. 6. Egan-Riley C. 5. Esteve M. 12. Humphreys B. 24. Cullen J. 8. Brownhill J. (C) 11. Anthony J. 7. Sarmiento J. 29. Laurent J. 19. Flemming Z.
Substitutes
21. Buckley J. 19. Hedges R. 20. Leonard H. 40. Litherland M. 4. McFadzean K. 41. O'Grady-Macken H. 11. Rankin-Costello J. 12. Toth B. (G) 14. Weimann A.	35. Barnes A. 16. Egan J. 17. Foster L. 32. Hladky V. (G) 30. Koleosho L. 23. Lucas Pires 49. McDermott T. 9. Rodriguez J. 4. Worrall J.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Parker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Batth D. 🟨,
40', Laurent J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Hyam D. 🟨,
60', 0 - 1, Flemming Z. ⚽, Humphreys B. (A),
75', Cozier-Duberry A. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
75', Gueye M. ↓, Leonard H. ↑,
78', Sarmiento J. ↓, Foster L. ↑,
82', Baker L. ↓, Buckley J. ↑,
82', Dolan T. ↓, Rankin-Costello J. ↑,
86', Tronstad S. ↓, Hedges R. ↑,
87', Cullen J. 🟨,
89', Flemming Z. ↓, Egan J. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Blackburn won 0.

Recent matches Blackburn is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Burnley is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Burnley will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Blackburn: Carter H. (Knee Injury) Ohashi Y. (Leg Injury) Sigurdsson A. (Thigh Injury) Travis L. (Hamstring Injury) Wharton S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Burnley: Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Manuel Hedilazio B. (Calf Injury) Mejbri H. (Red Card) Ramsey A. (Knee Injury) Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Blackburn: Cantwell T. (Illness)

There are questionable in Burnley: Delcroix H. (Muscle Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Blackburn won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 5:14 (average 0.5:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Blackburn won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2:7 (average 0.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Blackburn Rovers
English League Championship
01.01.25	Leeds United - Blackburn Rovers	1:1 ✺
29.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Hull City	0:1 ✺
26.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Sunderland	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Millwall - Blackburn Rovers	1:0 ✺
14.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TLTLW
- Burnley FC
English League Championship
01.01.25	Burnley - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
29.12.24	Middlesbrough - Burnley	0:0 ✺
26.12.24	Sheffield United - Burnley	0:2 ✺
21.12.24	Burnley - Watford	2:1 ✺
15.12.24	Norwich City - Burnley	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
31.08.24	Burnley - Blackburn Rovers	1:1
25.04.23	Blackburn Rovers - Burnley	0:1
13.11.22	Burnley - Blackburn Rovers	3:0
English League Cup
23.08.17	Blackburn Rovers - Burnley	0:2
English League Championship
05.03.16	Burnley - Blackburn Rovers	1:0
24.10.15	Blackburn Rovers - Burnley	0:1
09.03.14	Blackburn Rovers - Burnley	1:2

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