Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 25

Date: 1 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Burnley		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	6	Watch
	1.5	4.4	6.25
	1.51	4.28	6.4	Watch
	1.52	4.2	6.51	Watch
	1.53	4	6.5
	1.54	4.2	6.1	Watch
	1.51	4.28	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.63)	4.22 ↑ (3.7)	6.31 ↑ (5.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
62.5%

Draw
22.4%

Stoke City
15%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

25.4%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

23.9%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.2%	3.3%	6.6%

Burnley - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: Burnley will win (55 of 61 users predict this - 90.16%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.69% – 97.63%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trafford J. (G) 14. Roberts C. 6. Egan-Riley C. 5. Esteve M. 23. Lucas Pires 24. Cullen J. 8. Brownhill J. (C) 7. Sarmiento J. 30. Koleosho L. 11. Anthony J. 9. Rodriguez J.	1. Johansson V. (C) 22. Tchamadeu J. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. 2. Gooch L. 12. Seko T. 6. Burger W. 11. Koumas L. 24. Moran A. 10. Bae J. 9. Cannon T.
Substitutes
16. Egan J. 19. Flemming Z. 17. Foster L. 32. Hladky V. (G) 37. Hountondji A. 12. Humphreys B. 29. Laurent J. 28. Mejbri H. 4. Worrall J.	13. Bonham J. (G) 14. Ennis N. 20. Gallagher S. 23. Gibson B. 18. Lawal B. 5. Rose M. 30. Sidibe S. 3. Stevens E. 37. Tezgel E.
Coaches
Parker S.	Shawcross R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Moran A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Burger W. ↓, Gallagher S. ↑,
63', Rodriguez J. ↓, Flemming Z. ↑,
63', Koleosho L. ↓, Laurent J. ↑,
69', Sarmiento J. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
76', Gooch L. 🟨,
78', Lucas Pires ↓, Humphreys B. ↑,
78', Cullen J. ↓, Foster L. ↑,
79', Cannon T. ↓, Tezgel E. ↑,
85', Tchamadeu J. 🟨,
87', Mejbri H. 🟥,
90', Gallagher S. 🟨,
90+5', Anthony J. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Burnley won 3.

Burnley is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Stoke is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Burnley is certain favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Beyer J. (Thigh Injury) Manuel Hedilazio B. (Injury) Ramsey A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Manhoef M. (Injury) Pearson B. (Muscle Injury) Thompson J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Gibson B. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Burnley to win the game is with odds 1.52.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Burnley won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:5 (average 1:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Burnley won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 0.8:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English League Championship
29.12.24	Middlesbrough - Burnley	0:0 ✺
26.12.24	Sheffield United - Burnley	0:2 ✺
21.12.24	Burnley - Watford	2:1 ✺
15.12.24	Norwich City - Burnley	1:2 ✺
10.12.24	Burnley - Derby County	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TWWWT
- Stoke City
English League Championship
29.12.24	Stoke City - Sunderland	1:0 ✺
26.12.24	Stoke City - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
21.12.24	Sheffield Wednesday - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
10.12.24	Luton Town - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
30.11.24	Stoke City - Burnley	0:2
30.12.22	Stoke City - Burnley	0:1
05.10.22	Burnley - Stoke City	1:1
English Premier League
22.04.18	Stoke City - Burnley	1:1
12.12.17	Burnley - Stoke City	1:0
04.04.17	Burnley - Stoke City	1:0
03.12.16	Stoke City - Burnley	2:0

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