Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 17

Date: 2 January 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Denmark	Bold+, Sport Live
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3, COSMOTE Sport 9
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Lithuania	Sport 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Gil Vicente		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	7	4.1	1.45	Watch
	6.9	4.15	1.46	Watch
	7.04	4.37	1.48	Watch
	6.5	4	1.5
	7.02	4.27	1.53	Watch
	7	4.2	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.91 ↑ (5.87)	4.18 ↑ (3.94)	1.48 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
13.7%

Draw
22.6%

Sporting Lisbon
63.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.5%

24.6%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.2%

24.1%

60%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	13.8%	75.9%

Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 6 - 10.3%). Sporting will win (votes: 44 - 75.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 13.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 64.9% – 86.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Sporting (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 18 - 81.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 48. Espigares A. 4. Elimbi M. 20. Hevertton S. 5. Caseres F. 95. Garcia S. 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Esteves L. 7. Toure T. 89. Varela G.	1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 72. Quaresma E. 25. Inacio G. 2. Matheus Reis 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 52. Simoes J. 17. Trincao 89. Ioannidis F. 20. Araujo M. 97. Suarez L.
Substitutes
8. Bamba M. 17. Bermejo 29. Carlos Eduardo 11. Fernandes J. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 45. Mutombo J. 28. Pereira D. 6. Ze Carlos	27. Alisson Santos 50. Dias R. 58. Goncalves F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 5. Morita H. 28. Ribeiro R. 49. Romulus 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Caseres F. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
38', Hjulmand M. 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Suarez L. ⚽, Quaresma E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Suarez L. 🟨,
49', Ze Carlos 🟨,
64', Toure T. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
64', Garcia S. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
70', Elimbi M. 🟨,
77', Varela G. 🟨,
78', Matheus Reis ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
78', Simoes J. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
79', Inacio G. 🟥,
83', Hevertton S. ↓, Mutombo J. ↑,
83', Ze Carlos ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
84', Ioannidis F. ↓, Romulus ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Carlos Eduardo ⚽, Esteves L. (A),
90+2', Araujo M. 🟨,
90+4', Romulus 🟨,
90+5', Fernandez M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 0.

Gil Vicente has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sporting is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Sporting is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Konan G. (International duty) Mutombo J. (Injury) Thomas Luciano (Inactive)

There will not play in Sporting: Catamo G. (International duty) Debast Z. (Knee Injury) Diomande O. (International duty) Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Quenda G. (Foot Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Moreira A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 13:45. (average 0.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 6:22. (average 0.5:2).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Sporting CP: 20.71% Gil Vicente: 0.49%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17:8	9	15
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	5:5	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
28.12.25	Arouca - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
20.12.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
08.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Gil Vicente - Tondela	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TTTTL
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
28.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
23.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	6:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Bayern Munich - Sporting Lisbon	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
04.05.25	Sporting Lisbon - Gil Vicente	2:1
Taça de Portugal
27.02.25	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	0:1
Liga Portugal
22.12.24	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	0:0
12.04.24	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	0:4
04.12.23	Sporting Lisbon - Gil Vicente	3:1
05.04.23	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	0:0
30.09.22	Sporting Lisbon - Gil Vicente	3:1

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