Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV
World	Onefootball


	Estrela da Amadora		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.2	1.91	Watch
	4.4	3.3	1.83
	3.95	3.25	1.98	Watch
	4.23	3.38	1.99
	4.27	3.39	1.91	Watch
	3.9	3.2	1.95	Watch
	4.25	3.32	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.16 ↑ (4.14)	3.29 ↓ (3.51)	1.94 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
22.7%

Draw
28.7%

Gil Vicente
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

27.6%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

28.2%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Estrela da Amadora - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Estrela (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 2 - 50%). Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Ribeiro R. (G) 21. Scholze M. 30. Luan Patrick 4. Lekovic S. 24. Langa B. 19. Moreira P. 6. Jansson K. 99. Marcus A. 63. Sola A. 11. Jovane (C) 10. Stoica I.	30. Lucao (G) 20. Hevertton S. 4. Elimbi M. 39. Buatu J. (C) 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 10. Esteves L. 77. Murilo de Souza 95. Garcia S. 27. Moreira A. 23. Hernandez H.
Substitutes
26. Brahimi B. 39. Doue G. 13. Dudu (G) 2. Kalley Y. 18. Meireles J. 28. Moustier T. 83. Otavio 8. Robinho 9. Rodrigo Pinho	17. Bermejo 48. Espigares A. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 80. Rodrigues R. 89. Varela G. 26. Weverson 2. Ze Carlos 6. Ze Carlos
Coaches
Silva L.	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Murilo de Souza (Penalty Awarded),
45', Murilo de Souza 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Sola A. ↓, Doue G. ↑,
46', Luan Patrick ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
48', Moreira P. 🟨,
54', 1 - 1, Jovane ⚽, Moreira P. (A),
56', Moreira A. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
65', Stoica I. ↓, Moustier T. ↑,
66', Caseres F. 🟨,
67', 2 - 1, Marcus A. ⚽,
69', 2 - 2, Garcia S. ⚽, Hernandez H. (A),
77', Marcus A. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
78', Caseres F. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
78', Hernandez H. ↓, Varela G. ↑,
79', Scholze M. ↓, Otavio ↑,
90+4', Garcia S. ↓, Espigares A. ↑,
90+4', Murilo de Souza ↓, Rodrigues R. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 5).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Estrela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gil Vicente is the team to beat.

There will not play in Estrela: Antonetti L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive) Mutombo J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Estrela: Encada J. (Injury) Langa B. (Inactive) van Hooijdonk S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Toure T. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	1	11
9	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14:14	0	10

Last Results with these Odds

Gil Vicente - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 48.96%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
28.02.26	AVS - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
20.02.26	Estrela da Amadora - Tondela	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Estrela da Amadora - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Alverca - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLLWT
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
02.03.26	Gil Vicente - Benfica	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Gil Vicente - Braga	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Moreirense - Gil Vicente	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	2:0
07.03.25	Estrela da Amadora - Gil Vicente	1:1
05.10.24	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	3:0
18.05.24	Estrela da Amadora - Gil Vicente	1:0
14.01.24	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	1:1

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