Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Vonovia Ruhrstadion (Bochum)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
Asia	TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 6
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
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Indonesia	K-Vision, RCTI+
Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 7
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Malaysia	beIN Connect
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Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 3
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Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 5
Serbia	SportKlub 6
Slovakia	Sport TV2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 3
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+, Flow Sports 1, Flowsports.co
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Bochum		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.25	3.4	2.2
	3.3	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3.35	3.58	2.21	Watch
	3.3	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.48	3.59	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.5	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↓ (4.09)	3.48 ↓ (4.09)	2.18 ↑ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bochum
28.7%

Draw
27.4%

RB Leipzig
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

24.3%

55.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bochum has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bochum's performance.

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and RB Leipzig might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bochum than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bochum that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that RB Leipzig could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.5%	15.7%	58.8%

Bochum - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Bochum will win (votes: 13 - 25.5%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 30 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 15.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 45.3% – 72.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Drewes P. (G) 14. Oermann T. 20. Ordets I. 5. Bernardo 15. Passlack F. 19. Bero M. 6. Sissoko I. 32. Wittek M. (C) 10. de Wit D. 29. Broschinski M. 9. Boadu M.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 16. Klostermann L. 4. Orban W. (C) 13. Seiwald N. 17. Baku R. 18. Vermeeren A. 44. Kampl K. 22. Raum D. 10. Simons X. 14. Baumgartner C. 7. Nusa A.
Substitutes
18. Bamba S. 7. Daschner L. 2. Gamboa C. 33. Hofmann P. 21. Holtmann G. 1. Horn T. (G) 4. Masovic E. 13. Medic J. 23. Miyoshi K.	5. Bitshiabu E. 6. Elmas E. 47. Gebel V. 3. Geertruida L. 8. Haidara A. 9. Poulsen Y. 29. Ramsak R. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 48. Voufack L.
Coaches
Hecking D.	Rose M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
9', Bero M. 🟨,
10', 0 - 1, Orban W. ⚽, Raum D. (A),
13', 0 - 2, Nusa A. ⚽,
20', Passlack F. 🟨,
22', 0 - 3, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Raum D. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Passlack F. ↓, Holtmann G. ↑,
48', 1 - 3, Boadu M. ⚽, Holtmann G. (A),
57', 2 - 3, Boadu M. ⚽, Broschinski M. (A),
61', 3 - 3, Boadu M. (Pen),
68', Vermeeren A. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
69', Sissoko I. 🟨,
73', Baku R. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
89', Broschinski M. ↓, Masovic E. ↑,
90+2', Ordets I. 🟨,
90+2', Boadu M. ↓, Daschner L. ↑,
90+2', de Wit D. ↓, Hofmann P. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bochum won 1.

Bochum is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches RB Leipzig is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

RB Leipzig could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Bochum have a series of home games.

RB Leipzig will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bochum: Pannewig M. (Back Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Andre Silva (Calf Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lukeba C. (Thigh Injury) Openda L. (Red Card) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Poulsen Y. (Hip Injury) Schlager X. (Muscle Injury) Sesko B. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Bochum: Losilla A. (Illness) Oermann T. (Knock)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Bochum won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 4:25 (average 0.3:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Bochum won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 3:8 (average 0.6:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Bochum
German Bundesliga
15.01.25	Bochum - St. Pauli	1:0 ✺
11.01.25	Mainz - Bochum	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.25	Bochum - Heracles Almelo	1:0 ✺
05.01.25	Bochum - Wuppertal	6:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.12.24	Bochum - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLWWW
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
15.01.25	Stuttgart - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	RB Leipzig - Werder Bremen	4:2 ✺
20.12.24	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	5:1 ✺
15.12.24	RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.24	RB Leipzig - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
24.08.24	RB Leipzig - Bochum	1:0
02.03.24	Bochum - RB Leipzig	1:4
07.10.23	RB Leipzig - Bochum	0:0
18.03.23	Bochum - RB Leipzig	1:0
01.10.22	RB Leipzig - Bochum	4:0
27.02.22	Bochum - RB Leipzig	0:1
02.10.21	RB Leipzig - Bochum	3:0

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