Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport App
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 9
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 9
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Hungary	Net4+
India	Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Sky Sport
Montenegro	Sportklub 9
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 9
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Viaplay
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tivibu Spor 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Mainz		Bochum

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.9	5	Watch
	1.68	3.8	5
	1.7	4	5	Watch
	1.53	4.58	6.01
	1.71	3.99	5.16	Watch
	1.73	3.8	4.8	Watch
	1.74	4.1	5.09	Watch
	1.7	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.52)	4.02 ↓ (4.57)	5.13 ↓ (5.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
57.3%

Draw
24%

Bochum
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

20.9%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

20.7%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mainz's form might have worsened.

Bochum has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mainz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bochum than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.3%	6.7%	5%

Mainz - Bochum Predictions

Users Predictions: Mainz will win (52 of 59 users predict this - 88.14%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.89% – 96.39%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 3. Jenz M. 19. Caci A. 6. Sano K. 31. Kohr D. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 29. Burkardt J. (C)	27. Drewes P. (G) 14. Oermann T. 20. Ordets I. 5. Bernardo 15. Passlack F. 8. Losilla A. (C) 32. Wittek M. 6. Sissoko I. 19. Bero M. 33. Hofmann P. 29. Broschinski M.
Substitutes
4. Barkok A. 33. Batz D. (G) 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 14. Hong Hyun-Seok 5. Leitsch M. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 44. Weiper N. 30. Widmer S.	18. Bamba S. 9. Boadu M. 7. Daschner L. 10. de Wit D. 2. Gamboa C. 21. Holtmann G. 1. Horn T. (G) 4. Masovic E. 13. Medic J.
Coaches
Henriksen B.	Hecking D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Oermann T. ↓, Medic J. ↑,
23', 1 - 0, Burkardt J. ⚽, Caci A. (A),
33', Hofmann P. 🟨,
38', Nebel P. ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
45+7', Sissoko I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Losilla A. ↓, de Wit D. ↑,
65', Wittek M. ↓, Holtmann G. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Burkardt J. ⚽, Mwene P. (A),
70', Ordets I. ↓, Masovic E. ↑,
70', Broschinski M. ↓, Boadu M. ↑,
71', Burkardt J. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
90+1', Jenz M. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
90+1', Caci A. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
90+1', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Weiper N. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mainz won 3.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Bochum could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Bochum have a series of home games.

In this match Mainz is a favorite.

There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Red Card) Vidovic G. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Bochum: Miyoshi K. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Mainz: Burkardt J. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Injury) Widmer S. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Bochum: Balde A. (Injury) Holtmann G. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Mainz to win the game is with odds 1.61.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Mainz won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:13 (average 1.9:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:5 (average 2.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
21.12.24	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:3 ✺
14.12.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	2:1 ✺
08.12.24	Wolfsburg - Mainz	4:3 ✺
01.12.24	Mainz - Hoffenheim	2:0 ✺
24.11.24	Holstein Kiel - Mainz	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.6 WWLWW
- VfL Bochum
Club Friendly
05.01.25	Bochum - Heracles Almelo	1:0 ✺
05.01.25	Bochum - Wuppertal	6:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.12.24	Bochum - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Union Berlin - Bochum	1:1 ✺
07.12.24	Bochum - Werder Bremen	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
16.03.24	Mainz - Bochum	2:0
27.10.23	Bochum - Mainz	2:2
28.01.23	Mainz - Bochum	5:2
06.08.22	Bochum - Mainz	1:2
German DFB Pokal
18.01.22	Bochum - Mainz	3:1
German Bundesliga
15.01.22	Mainz - Bochum	1:0
21.08.21	Bochum - Mainz	2:0

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