Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport App
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	15:30	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:30	Moja TV, Sportklub 9
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada
China	22:30	ZhiBo8
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 9
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Viaplay
Germany	15:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports Start
Hungary	15:30	Net4+
India	20:00	Vision+
Indonesia	21:30	RCTI+
Japan	23:30	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN Connect
Mexico	08:30	Sky Sport
Montenegro	15:30	Sportklub 9
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 9
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect
Poland	15:30	Viaplay
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Thailand	21:30	beIN Connect
Turkey	17:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tivibu Spor 2
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	21:30	K+, ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360
International	14:30	Disney+, Onefootball


	Mainz		Bochum

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.9	5	Watch
	1.68	3.8	5
	1.7	4	5	Watch
	1.53	4.58	6.01
	1.71	3.99	5.16	Watch
	1.73	3.8	4.8	Watch
	1.74	4.1	5.09	Watch
	1.7	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.52)	4.02 ↓ (4.57)	5.13 ↓ (5.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
57.3%

Draw
24%

Bochum
18.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.1%

20.9%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

20.6%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mainz's form might have worsened.

Bochum has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mainz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bochum than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.3%	6.7%	5%

Mainz - Bochum Predictions

Users Predictions: Mainz will win (52 of 59 users predict this - 88.14%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.89% – 96.39%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 3. Jenz M. 19. Caci A. 6. Sano K. 31. Kohr D. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 29. Burkardt J. (C)	27. Drewes P. (G) 14. Oermann T. 20. Ordets I. 5. Bernardo 15. Passlack F. 8. Losilla A. (C) 32. Wittek M. 6. Sissoko I. 19. Bero M. 33. Hofmann P. 29. Broschinski M.
Substitutes
4. Barkok A. 33. Batz D. (G) 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 14. Hong Hyun-Seok 5. Leitsch M. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 44. Weiper N. 30. Widmer S.	18. Bamba S. 9. Boadu M. 7. Daschner L. 10. de Wit D. 2. Gamboa C. 21. Holtmann G. 1. Horn T. (G) 4. Masovic E. 13. Medic J.
Coaches
Henriksen B.	Hecking D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Oermann T. ↓, Medic J. ↑,
23', 1 - 0, Burkardt J. ⚽, Caci A. (A),
33', Hofmann P. 🟨,
38', Nebel P. ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
45+7', Sissoko I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Losilla A. ↓, de Wit D. ↑,
65', Wittek M. ↓, Holtmann G. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Burkardt J. ⚽, Mwene P. (A),
70', Ordets I. ↓, Masovic E. ↑,
70', Broschinski M. ↓, Boadu M. ↑,
71', Burkardt J. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
90+1', Jenz M. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
90+1', Caci A. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
90+1', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Weiper N. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mainz won 3.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Bochum could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Bochum have a series of home games.

In this match Mainz is a favorite.

There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Red Card) Vidovic G. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Bochum: Miyoshi K. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Mainz: Burkardt J. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Injury) Widmer S. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Bochum: Balde A. (Injury) Holtmann G. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Mainz to win the game is with odds 1.61.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Mainz won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:13 (average 1.9:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:5 (average 2.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
21.12.24	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:3 ✺
14.12.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	2:1 ✺
08.12.24	Wolfsburg - Mainz	4:3 ✺
01.12.24	Mainz - Hoffenheim	2:0 ✺
24.11.24	Holstein Kiel - Mainz	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.6 WWLWW
- VfL Bochum
Club Friendly
05.01.25	Bochum - Heracles Almelo	1:0 ✺
05.01.25	Bochum - Wuppertal	6:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.12.24	Bochum - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Union Berlin - Bochum	1:1 ✺
07.12.24	Bochum - Werder Bremen	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
16.03.24	Mainz - Bochum	2:0
27.10.23	Bochum - Mainz	2:2
28.01.23	Mainz - Bochum	5:2
06.08.22	Bochum - Mainz	1:2
German DFB Pokal
18.01.22	Bochum - Mainz	3:1
German Bundesliga
15.01.22	Mainz - Bochum	1:0
21.08.21	Bochum - Mainz	2:0

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