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Bologna vs Aston Villa Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, April 09, 2026)

Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Scharer S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


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South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
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Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 2
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World	Sport 24 Extra


	Bologna		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.4	2
	4.05	3.45	2.02
	4.09	3.39	2.04
	4.12	3.4	2.03	Watch
	3.9	3.2	1.95
	4.23	3.46	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.05 ↑ (3.18)	3.38 ↑ (3.35)	2 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
23.7%

Draw
28.4%

Aston Villa
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

28.4%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

28.1%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bologna's form might have worsened.

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aston Villa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bologna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aston Villa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.2%	12.3%	79.5%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (58 of 71 users predict this - 81.69%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.69% – 90.69%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ravaglia F. (G) 17. Joao Mario 14. Heggem T. 26. Lucumi J. 33. Miranda J. 19. Ferguson L. (C) 8. Freuler R. 4. Pobega T. 10. Bernardeschi F. 9. Castro S. 11. Rowe J.	23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 24. Onana A. 8. Tielemans Y. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
28. Cambiaghi N. 16. Casale N. 73. Castaldo F. 82. Franceschelli M. (G) 6. Moro N. 21. Odgaard J. 7. Orsolini R. 25. Pessina M. (G) 23. Sohm S. 20. Zortea N.	18. Abraham T. 31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 21. Douglas Luiz 9. Elliott H. 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 5. Mings T. 64. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Italiano V.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Lucumi J. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Konsa E. ⚽, Tielemans Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 0 - 2, Watkins O. ⚽, Buendia E. (A),
65', Pobega T. 🟨,
67', Ferguson L. ↓, Orsolini R. ↑,
67', Pobega T. ↓, Moro N. ↑,
80', Onana A. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
82', Castro S. ↓, Odgaard J. ↑,
85', Rogers M. 🟨,
88', Rogers M. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
88', Buendia E. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Rowe J. ⚽, Lucumi J. (A),
90', Freuler R. ↓, Cambiaghi N. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 3, Watkins O. ⚽, Tielemans Y. (A),

Preview

First leg.

Bologna is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aston Villa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Aston Villa could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Bologna: Bonifazi K. (Inactive) Dallinga T. (Injury) De Silvestri L. (Inactive) Dominguez B. (Hip Injury) Fauske Helland E. (Inactive) Lykogiannis C. (Thigh Injury) Skorupski L. (Muscle Injury) Vitik M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Inactive) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive) Sancho J. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

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Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 41.71%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
05.04.26	Cremonese - Bologna	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Bologna - Lazio	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Roma - Bologna	3:4 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
15.03.26	Sassuolo - Bologna	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Bologna - Roma	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WLWWT
- Aston Villa
Club Friendly
27.03.26	Aston Villa - Elche	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
22.03.26	Aston Villa - West Ham United	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Aston Villa - Lille	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
15.03.26	Manchester United - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Lille - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Aston Villa - Bologna	1:0
UEFA Champions League
22.10.24	Aston Villa - Bologna	2:0

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