Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aston Villa		Bologna

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6.25
	1.6	4.35	5.5
	1.55	4.45	6.6
	1.57	4.45	5.39	Watch
	1.5	4	5.75
	1.54	4.44	6.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.71)	4.34 ↑ (3.95)	5.98 ↑ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
62%

Draw
22.1%

Bologna
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

24%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

23%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aston Villa's performance.

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	3.9%	7.8%

Aston Villa - Bologna Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Aston Villa (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (42 of 48 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.14% – 96.86%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 24. Onana A. 8. Tielemans Y. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.	13. Ravaglia F. (G) 33. Miranda J. 41. Vitik M. 16. Casale N. 17. Joao Mario 8. Freuler R. 6. Moro N. 10. Bernardeschi F. 19. Ferguson L. (C) 11. Rowe J. 9. Castro S.
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 21. Douglas Luiz 9. Elliott H. 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 5. Mings T. 19. Sancho J. 64. Wright J. (G)	28. Cambiaghi N. 73. Castaldo F. 82. Franceschelli M. (G) 14. Heggem T. 22. Lykogiannis C. 21. Odgaard J. 7. Orsolini R. 25. Pessina M. (G) 4. Pobega T. 23. Sohm S. 20. Zortea N.
Coaches
Emery U.	Italiano V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Watkins O. ⚽, Rogers M. (A),
25', Rogers M. (Penalty Awarded),
26', 2 - 0, Buendia E. ⚽, Digne L. (A),
29', Bernardeschi F. 🟨,
39', 3 - 0, Rogers M. ⚽, McGinn J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bernardeschi F. ↓, Orsolini R. ↑,
46', Freuler R. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
46', Joao Mario ↓, Zortea N. ↑,
64', McGinn J. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
64', Watkins O. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
74', Rogers M. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
74', Tielemans Y. ↓, Douglas Luiz ↑,
76', Castro S. ↓, Odgaard J. ↑,
78', Onana A. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
82', Casale N. ↓, Heggem T. ↑,
89', 4 - 0, Konsa E. ⚽, Abraham T. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 3-1. Second leg.

Aston Villa is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bologna has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bologna may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Aston Villa is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Injury) Barkley R. (Inactive) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bologna: Bonifazi K. (Inactive) Dallinga T. (Injury) De Silvestri L. (Inactive) Dominguez B. (Hip Injury) Fauske Helland E. (Inactive) Lucumi J. (Yellow Cards) Skorupski L. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Martinez E. (Calf Injury) Sancho J. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
12.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Bologna - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
27.03.26	Aston Villa - Elche	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
22.03.26	Aston Villa - West Ham United	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Aston Villa - Lille	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWLWW
- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
12.04.26	Bologna - Lecce	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Bologna - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.04.26	Cremonese - Bologna	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Bologna - Lazio	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Roma - Bologna	3:4 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Bologna - Aston Villa	1:3
25.09.25	Aston Villa - Bologna	1:0
UEFA Champions League
22.10.24	Aston Villa - Bologna	2:0

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