Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 31

Date: 8 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Chilowicz A. (Usa)


	Bolton Wanderers		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5.25	Watch
	1.52	4.4	5.5
	1.53	4.5	5.5	Watch
	1.54	4.43	5.86
	1.52	4.27	5.73	Watch
	1.5	4.4	6
	1.52	4.55	5.56	Watch
	1.53	4.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.43)	4.44 ↓ (4.7)	5.61 ↓ (6.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
61.9%

Draw
21.2%

Crawley Town
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

19.9%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.8%

19%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bolton Wanderers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Bolton Wanderers - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Southwood L. (G) 12. Dacres-Cogley J. 18. Toal E. (C) 15. Forrester W. 3. Murphy A. 14. Osei-Tutu J. 16. Morley A. 8. Sheehan J. 23. Schon S. 31. Randall J. 45. McAtee J.	16. Cox M. (C) 30. Radcliffe B. 3. Conroy D. 5. Barker C. 7. Forster H. 12. Camara P. 23. Ibrahim B. 26. Doyle K. 9. Swan W. 14. Hepburn-Murphy R. 45. John-Jules T.
Substitutes
9. Adeboyejo V. 1. Baxter N. (G) 29. Etete K. 6. Johnston G. 2. Jones G. 17. Lolos K. 28. Matete J.	22. Adeyemo A. 2. Feely R. 25. Papadopoulos A. 18. Quitirna A. 29. Showunmi T. 1. Wollacott J. (G)
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Elliot R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Sheehan J. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 3)
50', 0 - 1, Hepburn-Murphy R. ⚽, John-Jules T. (A),
53', 1 - 1, Osei-Tutu J. ⚽, Dacres-Cogley J. (A),
54', 1 - 2, Swan W. ⚽, Forster H. (A),
61', Radcliffe B. 🟨,
62', 1 - 3, Hepburn-Murphy R. ⚽, Doyle K. (A),
63', Doyle K. ↓, Showunmi T. ↑,
63', Forster H. ↓, Feely R. ↑,
68', 2 - 3, Murphy A. ⚽, Sheehan J. (A),
69', Dacres-Cogley J. ↓, Jones G. ↑,
69', Schon S. ↓, Lolos K. ↑,
69', Murphy A. ↓, Johnston G. ↑,
70', Randall J. ↓, Adeboyejo V. ↑,
70', Swan W. ↓, Adeyemo A. ↑,
72', Barker C. 🟨,
80', Camara P. ↓, Quitirna A. ↑,
84', Feely R. 🟨,
85', 3 - 3, Sheehan J. ⚽,
89', Feely R. 🟥,
90', Forrester W. ↓, Matete J. ↑,
90+8', Showunmi T. 🟨,
90+9', 4 - 3, Barker C. (Own goal),

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 9 and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Recent matches Bolton is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Crawley is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Bolton is certain favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Bolton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:4 (average 1.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Bolton won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
01.02.25	Reading - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
28.01.25	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	Huddersfield Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
21.01.25	Bolton Wanderers - Charlton Athletic	1:2 ✺
18.01.25	Bolton Wanderers - Cambridge United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWLT
- Crawley Town
English League One
01.02.25	Crawley Town - Wrexham	1:2 ✺
28.01.25	Mansfield Town - Crawley Town	0:1 ✺
25.01.25	Stockport County - Crawley Town	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Crawley Town - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
04.01.25	Barnsley - Crawley Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
28.09.24	Crawley Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:2
English League Two
08.05.21	Crawley Town - Bolton Wanderers	1:4
02.01.21	Bolton Wanderers - Crawley Town	0:1
English League Cup
28.08.12	Crawley Town - Bolton Wanderers	2:1

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