Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Play Offs - Final

Date: 18 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Wembley Stadium (London)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bolton Wanderers		Oxford United

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	4	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.9
	1.9	3.75	3.75
	1.9	3.77	4.04
	1.89	3.77	4.04
	1.91	3.6	3.75
	1.9	3.72	3.91	Watch
	1.79	3.6	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.05)	3.68 ↑ (3.59)	3.92 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
50.3%

Draw
25.6%

Oxford United
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

26%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

25.6%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	7.1%	21.4%

Bolton Wanderers - Oxford United Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Bolton will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Oxford will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolton: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baxter N. (G) 2. Jones G. 5. Santos R. (C) 18. Toal E. 8. Sheehan J. 12. Dacres-Cogley J. 19. Maghoma P. 4. Thomason G. 17. Ogbeta N. 10. Charles D. 28. Collins A.	1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 5. Moore E. (C) 3. Brown C. 12. Bennett J. 8. Brannagan C. 30. Dale O. 20. Rodrigues R. 19. Goodrham T. 23. Murphy J. 9. Harris M.
Substitutes
14. Adeboyejo V. 13. Coleman J. (G) 22. Dempsey K. 15. Forrester W. 3. Iredale J. 35. Jerome C. 16. Morley A.	10. Bodin B. 11. Browne M. 13. Eastwood S. (G) 22. Leigh G. 6. McEachran J. 18. McGuane M. 15. Stevens F.
Coaches
Evatt I.	Buckingham D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
31', 0 - 1, Murphy J. ⚽, Rodrigues R. (A),
42', 0 - 2, Murphy J. ⚽, Rodrigues R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Jones G. 🟨,
49', Maghoma P. ↓, Dempsey K. ↑,
64', Brannagan C. ↓, McGuane M. ↑,
65', Sheehan J. ↓, Iredale J. ↑,
66', Charles D. ↓, Jerome C. ↑,
66', Ogbeta N. ↓, Adeboyejo V. ↑,
68', Dempsey K. 🟨,
72', Baxter N. 🟨,
77', Thomason G. 🟨,
80', Rodrigues R. ↓, McEachran J. ↑,
87', Bennett J. ↓, Leigh G. ↑,
90+8', Goodrham T. 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - Wembley Stadium. Playing at Wembley Stadium.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bolton won 3.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Bolton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bolton is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Bolton won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Bolton won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
07.05.24	Bolton Wanderers - Barnsley	2:3 ✺
03.05.24	Barnsley - Bolton Wanderers	1:3 ✺
27.04.24	Peterborough United - Bolton Wanderers	3:3 ✺
20.04.24	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	2:0 ✺
16.04.24	Bolton Wanderers - Shrewsbury Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWTWT
- Oxford United
English League One
08.05.24	Peterborough United - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
04.05.24	Oxford United - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
27.04.24	Exeter City - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
19.04.24	Oxford United - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
16.04.24	Oxford United - Lincoln City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.03.24	Bolton Wanderers - Oxford United	5:0
28.11.23	Oxford United - Bolton Wanderers	0:0
15.04.23	Oxford United - Bolton Wanderers	0:1
29.10.22	Bolton Wanderers - Oxford United	1:3
12.02.22	Oxford United - Bolton Wanderers	2:3
21.08.21	Bolton Wanderers - Oxford United	2:1
17.09.19	Bolton Wanderers - Oxford United	0:0

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