Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 44

Date: 13 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)


	Bolton Wanderers		Portsmouth

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.5	3.6
	2	3.5	3.5
	2.05	3.5	3.5	Watch
	2	3.55	3.85
	2	3.55	3.85
	2	3.5	3.5
	2.01	3.62	3.6	Watch
	1.93	3.5	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.25)	3.53 ↑ (3.39)	3.61 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
47.1%

Draw
26.8%

Portsmouth
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

27.8%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

29%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bolton Wanderers's performance.

Portsmouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Bolton Wanderers - Portsmouth Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bolton will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Portsmouth will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolton: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baxter N. (G) 2. Jones G. 5. Santos R. (C) 18. Toal E. 8. Sheehan J. 12. Dacres-Cogley J. 4. Thomason G. 19. Maghoma P. 17. Ogbeta N. 9. Bodvarsson J. 28. Collins A.	1. Norris W. (G) 17. Rafferty J. 20. Raggett S. 18. Shaughnessy C. 6. Ogilvie C. 23. Moxon O. 7. Pack M. (C) 25. Kamara A. 49. Lang C. 32. Lane P. 9. Bishop C.
Substitutes
10. Charles D. 13. Coleman J. (G) 22. Dempsey K. 3. Iredale J. 35. Jerome C. 16. Morley A. 27. Williams R.	28. Anjorin F. 45. Evans L. 13. Macey M. (G) 15. Saydee C. 21. Sparkes J. 11. Whyte G. 19. Yengi K.
Coaches
Evatt I.	Mousinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Kamara A. ⚽,
14', Lang C. 🟨,
32', Toal E. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Collins A. ⚽, Ogbeta N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Moxon O. ↓, Anjorin F. ↑,
58', Lane P. ↓, Whyte G. ↑,
58', Lang C. ↓, Saydee C. ↑,
58', Bishop C. ↓, Yengi K. ↑,
76', Sheehan J. ↓, Morley A. ↑,
76', Maghoma P. ↓, Dempsey K. ↑,
80', Collins A. ↓, Charles D. ↑,
80', Bodvarsson J. ↓, Jerome C. ↑,
88', Santos R. 🟨,
90+1', Jerome C. 🟨,
90+2', Ogbeta N. ↓, Williams R. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bolton won 2.

Bolton is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Portsmouth in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Bolton will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Bolton won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Bolton won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
06.04.24	Bristol Rovers - Bolton Wanderers	0:2 ✺
01.04.24	Bolton Wanderers - Reading	5:2 ✺
29.03.24	Stevenage Borough - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
16.03.24	Derby County - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
12.03.24	Bolton Wanderers - Oxford United	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWTLW
- Portsmouth FC
English League One
06.04.24	Portsmouth - Shrewsbury Town	3:1 ✺
02.04.24	Portsmouth - Derby County	2:2 ✺
29.03.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
16.03.24	Peterborough United - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
12.03.24	Portsmouth - Burton Albion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
11.12.23	Portsmouth - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
28.02.23	Portsmouth - Bolton Wanderers	3:1
14.01.23	Bolton Wanderers - Portsmouth	3:0
English EFL Trophy
10.01.23	Bolton Wanderers - Portsmouth	1:0
English League One
05.04.22	Bolton Wanderers - Portsmouth	1:1
30.10.21	Portsmouth - Bolton Wanderers	1:0
18.01.20	Bolton Wanderers - Portsmouth	0:1

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