Match Info

Championship - Round 4

Date: 1 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Allison S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Portsmouth		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.30	3.75	Watch
	2.00	3.40	3.75
	1.90	3.40	3.95	Watch
	2.09	3.47	3.90
	2.1	3.42	3.52	Watch
	2.03	3.40	3.85
	2.00	3.38	3.68	Watch
	2.01	3.35	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.56)	3.39 ↑ (3.28)	3.77 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
47%

Draw
27.9%

Derby County
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

28.3%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

27.5%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portsmouth's performance.

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portsmouth that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68%	16%	16%

Portsmouth - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Portsmouth will win (votes: 17 - 68%). Derby will win (votes: 4 - 16%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portsmouth: 49.7% – 86.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Portsmouth (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bielica D. (G) 24. Devlin T. 2. Arthur B. 55. Dia M. 22. Swanson Z. 7. Pack M. (C) 38. Adams E. 11. Kamara A. 10. Segecic A. 25. Kavuma McQueen R. 29. Marezi	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. (C) 28. Sanderson D. 3. Forsyth C. 18. Taylor C. 29. Fraulo O. 20. Mowatt A. 26. Hedges R. 8. Clark B. 10. Brewster R. 11. Szmodics S.
Substitutes
27. Bailey O. 9. Bishop C. 34. Blair H. 28. Brooke-Smith L. 37. Mohamed I. 5. Poole R. 1. Schmid N. (G) 19. Shein R. R. 8. Swift J.	13. Bilbija F. 33. Blackett-Taylor C. 37. Eames O. 22. Johnston M. 19. Meister H. 24. Nyambe R. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Szmodics S. ⚽, Clark B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Langas S. 🟨,
59', Brewster R. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Salvesen L. ⚽, Fraulo O. (A),
65', Kavuma McQueen R. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
66', Marezi ↓, Bishop C. ↑,
69', Devlin T. 🟨,
72', Pack M. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
72', Adams E. ↓, Shein R. R. ↑,
80', Forsyth C. ↓, Nyambe R. ↑,
81', Clark B. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
83', Taylor C. 🟨,
85', Swanson Z. ↓, Bailey O. ↑,
86', Hedges R. ↓, Johnston M. ↑,
86', Szmodics S. ↓, Bilbija F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 0.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Recently, Portsmouth has had a series of away games.

Portsmouth could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Portsmouth: Anderson K. (Muscle Injury) Bursik J. (Calf Injury) Kosznovszky M. (Knee Injury) Murphy J. (Injury) Ogilvie C. (Knee Injury) Umeh F. (Hamstring Injury) Waddingham T. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Murkin D. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Portsmouth: Farrell J. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Clarke M. (Calf Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Portsmouth: 0.98% Derby: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
29.08.26	Bristol City - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Lincoln City - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
15.08.26	Portsmouth - Queens Park Rangers	1:3 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	West Ham United - Portsmouth	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Darmstadt - Portsmouth	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLLT
- Derby County
English League Championship
29.08.26	Derby County - Swansea City	0:3 ✺
22.08.26	Derby County - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Derby County - Lincoln City	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
04.08.26	Rotherham United - Derby County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
16.03.26	Portsmouth - Derby County	0:1
20.12.25	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1
12.04.25	Portsmouth - Derby County	2:2
13.12.24	Derby County - Portsmouth	4:0
English League One
02.04.24	Portsmouth - Derby County	2:2
16.09.23	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1
29.04.23	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1

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