Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2024, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo
France	21:00	beIN Sports
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video
Hungary	21:00	Sport 1
Italy	21:00	Sky Sport Arena, Sky Sport
Romania	22:00	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub
United Kingdom	20:00	TNT Sports


	Borussia Dortmund		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.6	3.2
	2.1	3.6	3.2
	2.18	3.8	3.2	Watch
	2.23	3.8	3.2
	2.23	3.8	3.17
	2.15	3.7	3.1
	2.26	3.78	3.25
	2.19	3.65	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.31)	3.72 ↑ (3.62)	3.18 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
43.9%

Draw
25.9%

Atlético Madrid
30.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.4%

26.4%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

26.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	19.2%	19.2%

Borussia Dortmund - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 76 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 47 - 61.8%). Atlético will win (votes: 14 - 18.4%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 19.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 50.9% – 72.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 26. Ryerson J. 15. Hummels M. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 22. Maatsen I. 20. Sabitzer M. 23. Can E. (C) 27. Adeyemi K. 19. Brandt J. 10. Sancho J. 14. Fullkrug N.	13. Oblak J. (G) 16. Molina N. 20. Witsel A. 2. Gimenez J. M. 22. Hermoso M. 3. Azpilicueta C. 14. Llorente M. 6. Koke (C) 5. de Paul R. 19. Morata A. 7. Griezmann A.
Substitutes
43. Bynoe-Gittens J. 16. Duranville J. 35. Lotka M. (G) 33. Meyer A. (G) 18. Moukoko Y. 8. Nmecha F. 6. Ozcan S. 11. Reus M. 25. Sule N. 38. Watjen K. 17. Wolf M.	24. Barrios P. 10. Correa A. 4. Gabriel Paulista 31. Gomis A. (G) 23. Mandava R. 1. Moldovan H. (G) 8. Niguez S. 32. Nino A. 17. Riquelme R. 15. Savic S. 18. Vermeeren A.
Coaches
Terzic E.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
30', Azpilicueta C. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Brandt J. ⚽, Hummels M. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Maatsen I. ⚽, Sabitzer M. (A),
43', Ryerson J. 🟨,
45+1', Hermoso M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Molina N. ↓, Barrios P. ↑,
46', Morata A. ↓, Correa A. ↑,
46', Azpilicueta C. ↓, Riquelme R. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Hummels M. (Own goal), Hermoso M. (A),
64', 2 - 2, Correa A. ⚽,
66', Adeyemi K. ↓, Bynoe-Gittens J. ↑,
71', 3 - 2, Fullkrug N. ⚽, Sabitzer M. (A),
74', 4 - 2, Sabitzer M. ⚽,
84', de Paul R. ↓, Niguez S. ↑,
86', Sancho J. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
90', Brandt J. ↓, Reus M. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Recent matches Borussia D is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Atlético is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Atlético could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Atlético have a series of home games.

Borussia D will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Borussia D: Bensebaini R. (Knee Injury) Haller S. (Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Depay M. (Muscle Injury) Lemar T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lino S. (Yellow Cards) Vitolo (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Bynoe-Gittens J. (Back Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Borussia D won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
13.04.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.04.24	Atlético Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.04.24	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	0:1 ✺
30.03.24	Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
17.03.24	Borussia Dortmund - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WLLWW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
13.04.24	Atlético Madrid - Girona	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.04.24	Atlético Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.04.24	Villarreal - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
17.03.24	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.03.24	Atlético Madrid - Inter Milan	3:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
10.04.24	Atlético Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	2:1
06.11.18	Atlético Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
24.10.18	Borussia Dortmund - Atlético Madrid	4:0

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