Match Info

Paulista - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Botafogo SP		Capivariano

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.6	Watch
	2.08	3.05	3.6
	2.17	3.09	3.76
	2.13	3.14	3.62	Watch
	2.1	2.88	3.4
	2.08	2.96	3.56	Watch
	2.16	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.04)	3.02 ↓ (3.04)	3.61 ↓ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
43.8%

Draw
30.6%

Capivariano
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

30.3%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

29.7%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Capivariano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Capivariano than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Botafogo SP - Capivariano Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Souza (G) 6. Gabriel Inocencio 3. Ericson (C) 4. Vilar 30. Henrique Teles 16. Matheus Sales 5. Maciel L. 11. Jefferson Nem 8. Everton Morelli 23. Kelvin 7. Hygor	12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 2. Diogo Mateus 3. Octavio 4. Wendel Lomar 6. Leonan Santos 5. Bruno Silva 7. Carlos Eduardo 8. Thiago Moraes 10. Cassio Gabriel 17. Baianinho 9. Vinicius Popo
Substitutes
14. Carlao 15. Guilherme Mariano 19. Guilherme Queiroz 22. Jeferson 12. Jordan (G) 9. Leo Gamalho 17. Marcio Maranhao 20. Marquinho 26. Pedro Henrique 29. Thalles 28. Tortello 27. Yuri Felipe	22. Balao 11. Felipe Azevedo 21. Leandrinho 13. Lucas Dias 18. Matheus Guilherme 19. Mike 20. Ravanelli 14. Ricardo Cerqueira 16. Tarcisio 1. Teixeira M. (G) 23. Tiago Santos (G) 15. Vinicius Guedes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Thiago Moraes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Cassio Gabriel ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
58', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
63', Henrique Teles 🟨,
69', Matheus Sales ↓, Marquinho ↑,
69', Kelvin ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
71', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Ravanelli ↑,
71', Baianinho ↓, Matheus Guilherme ↑,
75', Leonan Santos 🟥,
78', Guilherme Nogueira 🟨,
79', Henrique Teles ↓, Marcio Maranhao ↑,
84', Hygor ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
84', Jefferson Nem ↓, Thalles ↑,
85', Vinicius Popo ↓, Lucas Dias ↑,
85', Thiago Moraes ↓, Ricardo Cerqueira ↑,
90+6', 0 - 1, Felipe Azevedo ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Botafogo SP may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Botafogo SP is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Jeferson (Injury) Rafael Gava (Injury) Wallace (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Botafogo SP won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	Guarani - Botafogo SP	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Botafogo SP - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
22.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Primavera	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo SP	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.4 WWLWL
- Capivariano FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Capivariano - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
05.02.26	Corinthians - Capivariano	3:0 ✺
25.01.26	Capivariano - EC Primavera	1:2 ✺
21.01.26	EC Noroeste - Capivariano	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Capivariano - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
10.04.16	Botafogo SP - Capivariano	2:0
11.03.15	Capivariano - Botafogo SP	1:2

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