Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de la Libération (Boulogne-sur-Mer)

Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free


	Boulogne		Guingamp

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.58	3.1	2.72
	2.87	3.3	2.58
	6.33	3.92	1.52	Watch
	2.61	3.1	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↑ (2.48)	3.34 ↓ (3.53)	2.4 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boulogne
29%

Draw
29.7%

Guingamp
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

26.8%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

27.3%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boulogne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Boulogne's form might have worsened.

Guingamp has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guingamp's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boulogne than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boulogne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guingamp, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	42.1%	52.6%

Boulogne - Guingamp Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Boulogne will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). Guingamp will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 42.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guingamp: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Guingamp (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Guingamp (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Guingamp (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Uriev A. (G) 18. Thiam D. 15. Pinot A. 5. Zohore N. (C) 12. Boyer J. 21. Platret A. 22. Duflos S. 8. Raillot L. 19. Binet N. 10. El Farissi A. 26. Capuano G.	1. Bartouche-Selbonne T. (G) 2. Koffi E. 7. Gomis D. 22. Sissoko A. 23. Ourega D. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 20. Hatchi J. 11. Sagna A. 8. Sidibe K. 10. Hemia A. 9. Mafouta L.
Substitutes
7. Boiteau L. 14. Bultel J. 23. Fatar N. 17. Fatou C. 25. Gourville S. 16. Kone I. (G) 27. Mpembele Boula E.	39. Ahile T. 36. Demouchy A. 27. Kielt S. 40. Marec N. (G) 3. Matumona J. 6. N'Landu D. 24. Ott G.
Coaches
Dagneaux F.	Ripoll S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Ourega D. ⚽, Hemia A. (A),
34', Binet N. 🟨,
45+2', Louiserre D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Capuano G. ↓, Fatou C. ↑,
52', Boyer J. 🟨,
66', 0 - 2, Mafouta L. ⚽, Hemia A. (A),
67', Raillot L. ↓, Bultel J. ↑,
67', Platret A. ↓, Fatar N. ↑,
69', 1 - 2, Fatou C. ⚽, Duflos S. (A),
73', Sagna A. ↓, Ott G. ↑,
73', Hemia A. ↓, N'Landu D. ↑,
76', Duflos S. ↓, Boiteau L. ↑,
77', Mafouta L. ↓, Kielt S. ↑,
80', 2 - 2, Fatar N. ⚽, Fatou C. (A),
83', Pinot A. 🟨,
88', Binet N. ↓, Gourville S. ↑,
89', Boiteau L. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 2 (Relegation) and 6).

Recent performances by Boulogne have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Guingamp is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Boulogne: Kitenge C. (Inactive) Lenogue X. (Inactive) Mpembele Boula E. (Inactive) Raillot L. (Inactive) Siliadin L. (Injury) Toure H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Guingamp: Hemia A. (Inactive) Nair S. (Ankle Injury) Ortola A. (Elbow Injury) Planeix I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Boulogne: Binet N. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Boulogne won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Boulogne
French Ligue 2
03.10.25	Amiens - Boulogne	0:1 ✺
29.09.25	Boulogne - Red Star	1:2 ✺
23.09.25	Montpellier - Boulogne	1:3 ✺
19.09.25	Boulogne - Pau	0:3 ✺
16.09.25	Boulogne - Bastia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WLWLW
- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
03.10.25	Guingamp - Nancy	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Saint-Étienne - Guingamp	2:3 ✺
23.09.25	Guingamp - Dunkerque	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Troyes - Guingamp	5:2 ✺
15.09.25	Guingamp - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
17.02.12	Guingamp - Boulogne	N/A

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