Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Harrington T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 4, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	20:45	SuperSport 3
Argentina	16:45	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	06:45	beIN Connect
Belarus	22:45	Sport TV
Brazil	16:45	Disney+
Bulgaria	21:45	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	16:45	Disney+
Colombia	14:45	Disney+
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 6, Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	20:45	Viaplay
Finland	21:45	Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	20:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7
Iceland	19:45	Viaplay
India	01:15	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	02:45	Vidio
Italy	20:45	Como TV
Japan	04:45	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	03:45	SKY NET Sports 1
Malta	20:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	13:45	Disney+
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
New Zealand	08:45	beIN Connect
Norway	20:45	Viaplay, V Sport 3
Peru	14:45	Disney+
Serbia	20:45	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	03:45	mio Sports 3
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 4
South Korea	04:45	Coupang Play
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Uruguay	16:45	Disney+
Usa	15:45	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	15:45	Disney+


	Bournemouth		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	2.75	Watch
	2.30	3.70	2.85
	2.32	3.6	2.85	Watch
	2.38	3.72	2.99
	2.32	3.7	2.89	Watch
	2.3	3.6	2.85
	2.36	3.64	2.92	Watch
	2.28	3.6	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.18)	3.65 ↑ (3.53)	2.87 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bournemouth
41%

Draw
26%

Aston Villa
33%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43%

26.6%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

26.6%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bournemouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Bournemouth - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bournemouth will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bournemouth: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bournemouth (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.53) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.60) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Di Gregorio M. (G) 24. Sanchez J. 18. Diakite B. 14. Silva A. 6. Soler J. 4. Cook L. (C) 11. Gannon-Doak B. 16. Tavernier M. 10. Christie R. 21. Adli A. 30. Rodriguez A.	40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 4. Harwood-Bellis T. 5. Mings T. (C) 22. Maatsen I. 35. Joao Gomes 27. Goretzka L. 19. Mbaye I. 10. Buendia E. 53. Hemmings G. 39. Madjo B.
Substitutes
12. Adams T. 7. Brooks D. 5. Hill J. 19. Kluivert J. 22. Kroupi E. J. 1. Petrovic D. (G) 37. Rayan 15. Smith A. 3. Truffert A.	18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 6. Barkley R. 2. Cash M. 48. Cisse M. 17. Garnacho A. 8. Kamara B. 7. McGinn J. 1. Suzuki Z. (G)
Coaches
Rose M.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Adli A. ⚽, Soler J. (A),
12', Buendia E. 🟨,
16', Sanchez J. 🟨,
25', Gannon-Doak B. 🟨,
33', Madjo B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Tavernier M. ↓, Kluivert J. ↑,
46', Adli A. ↓, Rayan ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Cook L. ⚽, Gannon-Doak B. (A),
54', Joao Gomes 🟨,
58', Hemmings G. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
58', Mbaye I. ↓, Alysson ↑,
63', Gannon-Doak B. ↓, Brooks D. ↑,
63', Christie R. ↓, Adams T. ↑,
67', Cook L. 🟨,
69', 3 - 0, Rodriguez A. ⚽, Adams T. (A),
70', Buendia E. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
70', Goretzka L. ↓, McGinn J. ↑,
75', Madjo B. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
80', Rodriguez A. ↓, Kroupi E. J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bournemouth won 0.

Bournemouth has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Aston Villa is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Aston Villa could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Aston Villa has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Bournemouth holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Bournemouth: Araujo J. (Thigh Injury) Scott A. (Thigh Injury) Toth A. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Aston Villa: Cisse M. (Hip Injury) Onana A. (Knee Injury) Ruggeri M. (Muscle Injury) Wan-Bissaka A. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Bournemouth has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:21 (averaging 1.1:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bournemouth against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 7:6 goals (averaging 1.2:1 per game).

Outrights of English League Cup for now

Bournemouth: 8.16%

Last Results with these Odds

Bournemouth - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.02%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
25.10.26	Manchester United - Bournemouth	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.10.26	Bournemouth - Milan	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
18.10.26	Bournemouth - Sunderland	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.10.26	Bournemouth - Sturm Graz	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
10.10.26	Chelsea - Bournemouth	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
24.10.26	Aston Villa - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.26	Aston Villa - Viking Stavanger	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
17.10.26	Newcastle United - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.10.26	Aston Villa - Fenerbahçe	6:0 ✺
English Premier League
10.10.26	Aston Villa - Brentford	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
07.02.26	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	1:1
09.11.25	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	4:0
10.05.25	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	0:1
26.10.24	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	1:1
21.04.24	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	3:1
03.12.23	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	2:2
18.03.23	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	3:0

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