Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 28 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Referee: Pajac I. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 5, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus ROA, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Variety 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 8
Germany	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	DAZN 1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 10, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 10
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Braga		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	3.3
	2.05	3.7	3.4
	2.1	3.75	3.4	Watch
	2.09	3.83	3.46
	2.04	3.82	3.37	Watch
	2	3.7	3.4
	2.11	3.9	3.5
	2.1	3.75	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.45)	3.78 ↑ (3.05)	3.4 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
46.4%

Draw
25.4%

Hoffenheim
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

29.6%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

29.4%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Braga's performance.

Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hoffenheim might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Braga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.7%	5.6%	5.6%

Braga - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 71 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 63 - 88.7%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 4 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 81.3% – 96.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus (G) 13. Ferreira J. 26. Arrey-Mbi B. 4. Niakate S. 11. Fernandes R. 21. Horta R. (C) 6. Vitor Carvalho 8. Moutinho J. 7. Bruma 9. El Ouazzani A. 77. Martinez G.	1. Baumann O. (C) 15. Gendrey V. 35. Arthur Chaves 25. Akpoguma K. 19. Jurasek D. 16. Stach A. 29. Bruun Larsen J. 7. Bischof T. 27. Kramaric A. 23. Hlozek A. 10. Berisha M.
Substitutes
90. Fernandez Jaen R. 20. Gharbi I. 2. Gomez V. 29. Gorby 91. Hornicek L. (G) 10. Horta A. 19. Marin A. 33. Marques J. 53. Noro J. 25. Ribeiro Y. 3. Robson Bambu 12. Sa T. (G)	4. Drexler T. 8. Geiger D. 2. Hranac R. 3. Kaderabek P. 33. Moerstedt M. 34. Nsoki S. 36. Petersson L. (G) 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A. 18. Samassekou D. 26. Tabakovic H. 17. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
Carvalhal C.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Bruma ⚽,
8', 2 - 0, Fernandes R. ⚽, Horta R. (A),
41', Hlozek A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', Bischof T. ↓, Geiger D. ↑,
64', Hlozek A. ↓, Tohumcu U. ↑,
66', El Ouazzani A. ↓, Fernandez Jaen R. ↑,
66', Fernandes R. ↓, Gomez V. ↑,
72', Kramaric A. ↓, Tabakovic H. ↑,
72', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
75', Niakate S. ↓, Robson Bambu ↑,
81', Stach A. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
87', Martinez G. ↓, Ribeiro Y. ↑,
87', Moutinho J. ↓, Gorby ↑,
90+5', 3 - 0, Vitor Carvalho ⚽,

Preview

Braga is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Hoffenheim is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Hoffenheim have a series of home games.

Braga will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Braga: Zalazar R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Bebou I. (Injury) Becker F. O. (Knee Injury) Bulter M. (Thigh Injury) Grillitsch F. (Ankle Injury) Kabak O. (Knee Injury) Lenz C. (Calf Injury) Moerstedt M. (Injury) Promel G. (Knee Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Braga won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 2.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Braga won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Leixões - Braga	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.11.24	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	2:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.11.24	Elfsborg - Braga	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.11.24	Arouca - Braga	1:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
31.10.24	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLTWW
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
23.11.24	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	4:3 ✺
10.11.24	Augsburg - Hoffenheim	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.11.24	Hoffenheim - Lyon	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
02.11.24	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Hoffenheim - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
23.11.17	Braga - Hoffenheim	3:1
14.09.17	Hoffenheim - Braga	1:2

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