Match Info

Date: 16 October 2021, Saturday


	Brasil de Pelotas		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.7	2.8	2.15
				Watch
	3.65	2.8	2.17
	3.9	2.93	2.29
	3.5	2.8	2.25
	3.62	3.02	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↓ (3.91)	2.87 ↑ (2.72)	2.22 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brasil de Pelotas
25.4%

Draw
32.5%

Vila Nova
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

34.2%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

25.5%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brasil de Pelotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brasil de Pelotas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vila Nova could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Brasil de Pelotas - Vila Nova Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C and 13).

Brasil de Pelotas is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vila Nova is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Brasil de Pelotas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Vila Nova will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Brasil de Pelotas won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Brasil de Pelotas won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Serie B
06.10.21	Brasil de Pelotas - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
03.10.21	Cruzeiro - Brasil de Pelotas	2:0 ✺
29.09.21	Brasil de Pelotas - Brusque	0:2 ✺
26.09.21	Ponte Preta - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
21.09.21	Brasil de Pelotas - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLLL
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
08.10.21	Vila Nova - Remo	1:0 ✺
02.10.21	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
28.09.21	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
24.09.21	Goiás - Vila Nova	1:2 ✺
21.09.21	Vila Nova - Confiança	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
13.07.21	Vila Nova - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0
29.10.19	Vila Nova - Brasil de Pelotas	0:2
30.07.19	Brasil de Pelotas - Vila Nova	0:2
06.11.18	Brasil de Pelotas - Vila Nova	5:0
17.07.18	Vila Nova - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0
30.09.17	Vila Nova - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1
17.06.17	Brasil de Pelotas - Vila Nova	3:0

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