Match Info

ITALY: Serie B - Round 9

Date: 19 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadio Mario Rigamonti (Brescia)

Referee: Prontera A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia


	Brescia		Sassuolo

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.6	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.4	2
	3.6	3.4	2	Watch
	3.85	3.6	2.06
	3.6	3.51	2.05	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.8
	3.62	3.52	2.03	Watch
	3.5	3.4	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↑ (2.55)	3.46 ↑ (3.22)	2.13 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brescia
27.7%

Draw
27.6%

Sassuolo
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

29.1%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

30.3%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brescia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brescia's form might have worsened.

Sassuolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sassuolo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brescia than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brescia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sassuolo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	50%	33.3%

Brescia - Sassuolo Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Brescia will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Sassuolo will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lezzerini L. (G) 18. Jallow A. 15. Cistana A. (C) 28. Adorni D. 19. Corrado N. 21. Fogliata R. 6. Verreth M. 39. Besaggio M. 27. Olzer G. 7. Juric A. 29. Borrelli G.	31. Moldovan H. (G) 23. Toljan J. 26. Odenthal C. 80. Muharemovic T. 3. Doig J. 8. Ghion A. (C) 11. Boloca D. 7. Volpato C. 42. Thorstvedt K. 45. Lauriente A. 9. Mulattieri S.
Substitutes
22. Andrenacci L. (G) 26. Bertagnoli M. 8. Bjarnason B. 16. Buhagiar T. 24. Dickmann L. 20. Nuamah P. 4. Paghera F. 32. Papetti A.	10. Berardi D. 40. Iannoni E. 35. Lipani L. 44. Miranda K. 24. Moro L. 14. Obiang P. 17. Paz Y. 15. Pieragnolo E. 77. Pierini N. 19. Romagna F. 91. Russo F. 12. Satalino G. (G)
Coaches
Maran R.	Grosso F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Boloca D. ⚽, Toljan J. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Fogliata R. ⚽,
25', Verreth M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Boloca D. ↓, Obiang P. ↑,
53', Volpato C. 🟨,
55', 1 - 2, Volpato C. ⚽, Toljan J. (A),
57', 1 - 3, Lauriente A. ⚽, Mulattieri S. (A),
62', Volpato C. ↓, Berardi D. ↑,
62', Mulattieri S. ↓, Russo F. ↑,
64', Lauriente A. 🟨,
64', Olzer G. ↓, Nuamah P. ↑,
64', Jallow A. ↓, Dickmann L. ↑,
66', Besaggio M. 🟨,
68', Berardi D. 🟨,
71', Ghion A. ↓, Iannoni E. ↑,
74', Fogliata R. ↓, Bertagnoli M. ↑,
75', Lauriente A. ↓, Pierini N. ↑,
79', Juric A. ↓, Buhagiar T. ↑,
79', Verreth M. ↓, Bjarnason B. ↑,
82', 1 - 4, Iannoni E. ⚽, Berardi D. (A),
83', 2 - 4, Bjarnason B. ⚽, Dickmann L. (A),
90+5', 2 - 5, Pierini N. ⚽, Berardi D. (A),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent matches Brescia is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sassuolo is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Sassuolo will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Sassuolo: Lovato M. (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brescia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:9 (average 0.6:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Brescia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:5 (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brescia Calcio
Italian Serie B
06.10.24	Mantova - Brescia	1:1 ✺
30.09.24	Brescia - Cremonese	3:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
26.09.24	Monza - Brescia	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
21.09.24	Pisa - Brescia	2:1 ✺
14.09.24	Brescia - Frosinone	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWLLW
- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie B
05.10.24	Sassuolo - Cittadella	6:1 ✺
28.09.24	Sassuolo - Spezia	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
24.09.24	Lecce - Sassuolo	0:2 ✺
Italian Serie B
21.09.24	Nuova Cosenza - Sassuolo	0:1 ✺
15.09.24	Carrarese - Sassuolo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
09.03.20	Sassuolo - Brescia	3:0
18.12.19	Brescia - Sassuolo	0:2
Italian Serie B
13.04.13	Sassuolo - Brescia	1:1
18.11.12	Brescia - Sassuolo	1:1
27.04.12	Brescia - Sassuolo	1:2

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