Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Stade de Roudourou (Guingamp)

Referee: Kruzliak I. (Svk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus ROA, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN Premium
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	CANAL+ Evenement, CANAL+ Foot, New World TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 3, Virgin Media More
Usa	Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Brest		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	5	4	1.65
	5	4.1	1.63
	5.05	4.25	1.65	Watch
	5.29	4.2	1.69
	5.27	4.19	1.65	Watch
	5	4	1.65
	5.22	4.35	1.67
	5.05	4.25	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.11 ↓ (6.19)	4.17 ↓ (4.65)	1.66 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: UniMás, TUDN

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Current Win Probability

Brest
18.8%

Draw
23.1%

Bayer Leverkusen
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.5%

20.6%

64%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.7%

23.3%

72.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayer Leverkusen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brest that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+14.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayer Leverkusen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.4%	10.1%	86.5%

Brest - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (76 of 86 users predict this - 88.37%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.59% – 95.15%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Bizot M. (G) 7. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 44. Coulibaly S. 22. Haidara M. 45. Camara M. 20. Lees-Melou P. 8. Magnetti H. 10. Del Castillo R. 19. Ajorque L. 17. Sima A.	17. Kovar M. (G) 23. Mukiele N. 4. Tah J. (C) 3. Hincapie P. 20. Grimaldo A. 25. Palacios E. 24. Garcia A. 10. Wirtz F. 7. Hofmann J. 19. Tella N. 14. Schick P.
Substitutes
23. Amavi J. 14. Balde M. 11. Camblan A. 30. Coudert G. (G) 9. Doumbia K. 21. Faivre R. 6. Fernandes E. 50. Jauny N. (G) 28. Martin J. 3. Ndiaye A. 26. Pereira Lage M. 34. Salah I.	21. Adli A. 8. Andrich R. 13. Arthur 44. Belocian J. 30. Frimpong J. 1. Hradecky L. (G) 36. Lomb N. (G) 40. Onyeka F. 12. Tapsoba E. 11. Terrier M. 34. Xhaka G.
Coaches
Roy E.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Wirtz F. ⚽, Hofmann J. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Lees-Melou P. ⚽, Camara M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Tella N. ↓, Frimpong J. ↑,
63', Palacios E. ↓, Xhaka G. ↑,
63', Schick P. ↓, Adli A. ↑,
66', Sima A. ↓, Balde M. ↑,
72', Frimpong J. 🟨,
72', Ajorque L. ↓, Salah I. ↑,
72', Del Castillo R. ↓, Faivre R. ↑,
72', Mukiele N. ↓, Tapsoba E. ↑,
75', Wirtz F. 🟨,
79', Alonso X. 🟨,
81', Adli A. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
83', Camara M. ↓, Doumbia K. ↑,
83', Magnetti H. ↓, Fernandes E. ↑,
84', Salah I. 🟨,
90+2', Tah J. 🟨,
90+5', Lees-Melou P. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Recently Bayer have a series of home games.

In this match Bayer is a favorite.

There will not play in Brest: Locko B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Boniface V. (Hand Injury)

There are questionable in Brest: Le Cardinal J. (Groin Injury) Sima A. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
19.10.24	Brest - Rennes	1:1 ✺
06.10.24	Brest - Le Havre	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.24	Red Bull Salzburg - Brest	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
27.09.24	Auxerre - Brest	3:0 ✺
22.09.24	Brest - Toulouse	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TWWLW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
19.10.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
05.10.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Milan	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.09.24	Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
22.09.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWTW

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