Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 1 October 2024, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Scharer S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, SuperSport Variety 1
Argentina	16:00	ESPN 3
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 4
Azerbaijan	23:00	Ictimai TV
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	16:00	Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 2
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	21:00	TV3 MAX, TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	21:00	CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	19:00	Stod 2 Sport 2, Viaplay
India	00:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 1
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 3
Mexico	13:00	Cinemax, HBO Max
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ Family, CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 3
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 3
South America	—	ESPN 5 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect
Turkey	22:00	TRT Spor
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 5
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, Sport 24 At Sea Extra, Sport 24 Extra
Vietnam	02:00	ON Football, TV 360
International	19:00	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app


	Bayer Leverkusen		Milan

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.2	4.5
	1.63	4.33	4.75
	1.65	4.45	4.8
	1.67	4.4	4.84
	1.73	4.27	4.6	Watch
	1.67	4.33	4.6
	1.7	4.64	4.74
	1.65	4.45	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.62)	4.38 ↑ (4.32)	4.7 ↓ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
57.6%

Draw
21.9%

Milan
20.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59%

22.2%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

21.2%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	9.8%	2%

Bayer Leverkusen - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (89 of 101 users predict this - 88.12%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.81% – 94.43%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hradecky L. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 4. Tah J. 3. Hincapie P. 20. Grimaldo A. 34. Xhaka G. 24. Garcia A. 30. Frimpong J. 10. Wirtz F. 21. Adli A. 22. Boniface V.	16. Maignan M. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 46. Gabbia M. 23. Tomori F. 19. Hernandez T. (C) 29. Fofana Y. 14. Reijnders T. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 11. Pulisic C. 10. Leao R. 90. Abraham T.
Substitutes
8. Andrich R. 13. Arthur 44. Belocian J. 7. Hofmann J. 17. Kovar M. (G) 36. Lomb N. (G) 23. Mukiele N. 25. Palacios E. 14. Schick P. 19. Tella N. 11. Terrier M.	2. Calabria D. 21. Chukwueze S. 7. Morata A. 80. Musah Y. 69. Nava L. (G) 17. Okafor N. 31. Pavlovic S. 42. Terracciano F. 28. Thiaw M. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Alonso X.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Garcia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 1 - 0, Boniface V. ⚽, Frimpong J. (A),
62', Abraham T. ↓, Morata A. ↑,
74', Frimpong J. 🟨,
75', Boniface V. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
75', Garcia A. ↓, Andrich R. ↑,
80', Pulisic C. ↓, Chukwueze S. ↑,
82', Adli A. ↓, Palacios E. ↑,
84', Morata A. 🟨,
89', Grimaldo A. ↓, Belocian J. ↑,
89', Wirtz F. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
90+4', Chukwueze S. 🟨,

Preview

Now both teams are in good shape.

Milan could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bayer is a favorite.

There will not play in Milan: Bennacer I. (Calf Injury) Florenzi A. (Knee Injury) Sportiello M. (Hand Injury) Thiaw M. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Milan: Morata A. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
28.09.24	Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
22.09.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg	4:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.24	Feyenoord - Bayer Leverkusen	0:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.09.24	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:4 ✺
31.08.24	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWWWL
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
27.09.24	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
22.09.24	Inter Milan - Milan	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.24	Milan - Liverpool	1:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.09.24	Milan - Venezia	4:0 ✺
31.08.24	Lazio - Milan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWLWT

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