Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 28

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayer Leverkusen		Wolfsburg

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.75	7	Watch
	1.41	5.4	6.4	Watch
	1.44	5.2	6.81
	1.44	5.3	6.81	Watch
	1.44	4.6	6	Watch
	1.46	5.18	7.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.42)	5.07 ↓ (5.12)	6.71 ↑ (6.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
66.8%

Draw
18.9%

Wolfsburg
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.9%

18.6%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

15.1%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bayer Leverkusen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.8%	9.1%	12.1%

Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Bayer (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Wolfsburg (5.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (25 of 31 users predict this - 80.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.74% – 94.56%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 4 - 80%). Wolfsburg (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 5. Bade L. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 42. Culbreath M. 25. Palacios E. 6. Fernandez E. 20. Grimaldo A. 30. Maza I. 23. Tella N. 35. Kofane C.	1. Grabara K. (G) 6. Belocian J. 3. Vavro D. 4. Koulierakis K. 26. Kumbedi S. 24. Eriksen C. (C) 5. Vini Souza 21. Maehle J. 39. Wimmer P. 9. Amoura M. 23. Wind J.
Substitutes
17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 7. Hofmann J. 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 19. Poku E. 14. Schick P. 16. Tape A. 10. Tillman M.	27. Arnold M. 11. Daghim A. 31. Gerhardt Y. 19. Lindstrom J. 17. Pejcinovic D. 12. Pervan P. (G) 7. Shiogai K. 32. Svanberg M. 25. Zehnter A.
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Hecking D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
16', 0 - 1, Wind J. ⚽, Koulierakis K. (A),
29', Maehle J. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Grimaldo A. (Penalty Awarded),
31', 1 - 2, Maehle J. ⚽,
37', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
38', 1 - 3, Eriksen C. (Penalty Awarded),
38', Hecking D. 🟨,
44', 2 - 3, Grimaldo A. ⚽, Fernandez E. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Fernandez E. ↓, Schick P. ↑,
53', 3 - 3, Schick P. (Penalty Awarded),
55', Koulierakis K. 🟨,
66', Wimmer P. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
68', 4 - 3, Tapsoba E. ⚽,
71', Vavro D. 🟨,
72', Hjulmand K. 🟨,
73', 5 - 3, Maza I. ⚽, Palacios E. (A),
81', Tella N. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
81', Wind J. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
81', Eriksen C. ↓, Arnold M. ↑,
82', Kumbedi S. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
88', Kofane C. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
90+6', 6 - 3, Tillman M. ⚽, Poku E. (A),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 4.

In recent matches, Bayer has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Wolfsburg is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Bayer is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Arthur (Ankle Injury) Garcia A. (Yellow Cards) Lucas (Calf Injury) Quansah J. (Thigh Injury) Terrier M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Cleiton (Ankle Injury) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Fischer K. (Thigh Injury) Jenz M. (Red Card) Majer L. (Yellow Cards) Paredes K. (Muscle Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Seelt J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:24. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 1.8:2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	14:8	6	10

Last Results with these Odds

Bayer Leverkusen - the odds 1.42 are the expected chance of winning is 66.94%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
21.03.26	Heidenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Arsenal - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLTTT
- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
21.03.26	Wolfsburg - Werder Bremen	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Hoffenheim - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Stuttgart - Wolfsburg	4:0 ✺
21.02.26	Wolfsburg - Augsburg	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Wolfsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3
08.02.25	Wolfsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	0:0
22.09.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg	4:3
10.03.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg	2:0
21.10.23	Wolfsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
16.04.23	Wolfsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	0:0
22.10.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg	2:2

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