Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 24

Date: 30 August 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Pereira Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Santos		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	9.5	Watch
	1.37	4.33	7.75
	1.38	4.33	8.5
	1.4	4.57	9.24
	1.4	4.28	8.54	Watch
	1.36	4.4	8.5
	1.38	4.45	8.6	Watch
	1.38	4.33	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.34)	4.43 ↓ (4.72)	8.64 ↓ (9.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
68.1%

Draw
21.1%

Ponte Preta
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70%

19.9%

10.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

19.3%

9.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Ponte Preta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Santos - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 3. Hayner 4. Gil 15. Joao Basso 33. Souza 5. Joao Schmidt 21. Diego Pituca 20. Giuliano (C) 11. Guilherme 19. Wendell 42. Weslley Patati	1. Pedro Rocha (G) 2. Igor Inocencio 4. Mateus Silva 6. Sergio Raphael 33. Risso G. 80. Hudson 15. Castro 10. Elvis (C) 9. Jeh 35. Gabriel Novaes 11. Iago Dias
Substitutes
2. Alex Nascimento 81. Arce B. 12. Diogenes (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 22. Otero R. 88. Patrick 7. Pedrinho 8. Rincon T. 29. Rodrigo Ferreira 23. Sandry 37. Serginho 27. Willian Bigode	7. Dodo 8. Emerson Santos 70. Guilherme Dantas 13. Joilson 30. Luan Ribeiro (G) 14. Luiz Felipe 77. Matheus Regis 44. Nilson Junior 21. Ramon 58. Thomas Luciano 20. Vasconcelos J.
Coaches
Fabio Carille	Baptista N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Giuliano ⚽, Wendell (A),
27', Jeh 🟨,
33', 2 - 0, Joao Basso ⚽, Weslley Patati (A),
45', Elvis 🟨,
45', Elvis 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Risso G. ↓, Joilson ↑,
56', 2 - 1, Jeh ⚽,
62', Hayner ↓, Joao Pedro Chermont ↑,
62', Weslley Patati ↓, Otero R. ↑,
70', Iago Dias ↓, Dodo ↑,
77', Joilson 🟨,
78', Gabriel Novaes ↓, Matheus Regis ↑,
80', Giuliano ↓, Arce B. ↑,
82', Souza ↓, Rodrigo Ferreira ↑,
89', Joao Basso ↓, Alex Nascimento ↑,
90+1', 2 - 2, Jeh ⚽,
90+6', Hudson ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santos won 3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Santos is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Santos: Aderlan (Injury) Escobar G. (Red Card) Joao Paulo (Injury) Kevyson (Injury) Rodrigo Falcao (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Santos won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 28-28.

Including matches at home between the teams Santos won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie B
24.08.24	Santos - Amazonas	0:0 ✺
21.08.24	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
17.08.24	Santos - Avaí	0:1 ✺
09.08.24	Paysandu - Santos	0:3 ✺
02.08.24	Santos - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TTLWT
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
23.08.24	Ponte Preta - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
20.08.24	Amazonas - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
16.08.24	Ponte Preta - Goiás	1:1 ✺
11.08.24	Coritiba - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
04.08.24	Ponte Preta - Avaí	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
15.05.24	Ponte Preta - Santos	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.24	Santos - Ponte Preta	3:1
16.04.21	Ponte Preta - Santos	3:0
30.07.20	Santos - Ponte Preta	1:3
25.01.18	Ponte Preta - Santos	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
12.10.17	Ponte Preta - Santos	1:1
17.06.17	Santos - Ponte Preta	0:0

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