Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 42

Date: 27 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Plantío (Burgos)

Referee: Caparros I. (Esp)


	Burgos		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.5	6	Watch
	1.63	3.6	5
	1.65	3.65	5.4	Watch
	1.68	3.66	5.94
	1.57	3.25	5.5
	1.66	3.72	5.35	Watch
	1.66	3.65	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 (1.64)	3.58 ↓ (3.62)	5.48 ↓ (5.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgos
56.9%

Draw
26.1%

Lugo
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

26%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

17.4%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (-18.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Burgos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Burgos - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Burgos will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Lugo will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Churripi (G) 19. Areso J. 18. Aitor Cordoba 4. Zabaco M. 6. Navarro R. 22. Munoz M. 14. Elgezabal U. 5. Atienza M. 16. Curro 10. Bermejo A. 11. Gaspar C.	1. Sequeira P. (G) 23. Calavera J. 27. Castrin 21. Rodriguez A. 15. Loureiro M. 11. Baena Perez A. 6. Juanpe 22. Carbo M. 32. Thiam I. 37. Antonetti L. 7. Moyano S.
Substitutes
17. Andy 7. Artola J. 1. Barrio D. (G) 12. Castel S. 9. El Ghezouani M. 3. Garcia F. 21. Goldar D. 2. Gonzalez B. 15. Hernandez Garcia J. 24. Perez Mateo J. 20. Sierra G. 8. Valcarce P.	19. Aviles J. 9. Barreiro M. 29. Cuellar J. 18. El Hacen M. 38. Gui Guedes 17. Lopez A. 3. Pantic A. 24. Perez A. 16. Scepovic M. 14. Torres X. 13. Whalley O. (G) 12. Ze Ricardo
Coaches
Calero J.	Velez I.

Preview

Burgos has the most likely position - 11 (47.46%), project points - 56, currently - 54, not chance of relegated, not chance of prom. playoffs.

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (100%), project points - 29, currently - 28, already of relegated.

This event has small quality 23, very small importance 0, small match rating 12. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Burgos is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lugo has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lugo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Burgos is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Burgos won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Burgos won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
20.05.23	Tenerife - Burgos	2:1 ✺
12.05.23	Burgos - Leganés	0:3 ✺
07.05.23	Cartagena - Burgos	0:0 ✺
01.05.23	Burgos - Villarreal B	1:0 ✺
23.04.23	Mirandés - Burgos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTWL
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
20.05.23	Lugo - Huesca	1:2 ✺
13.05.23	Granada - Lugo	2:0 ✺
07.05.23	Lugo - FC Andorra	2:2 ✺
01.05.23	Sporting de Gijón - Lugo	3:1 ✺
23.04.23	Lugo - Málaga	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
23.10.22	Lugo - Burgos	2:0
Club Friendly
20.07.22	Lugo - Burgos	1:3
Spanish LaLiga2
29.01.22	Lugo - Burgos	1:0
17.10.21	Burgos - Lugo	1:1
Club Friendly
17.07.21	Burgos - Lugo	0:0

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