Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 5

Date: 5 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: Pirelli Stadium (Burton upon Trent)

Referee: Oldham S. (Eng)


	Burton Albion		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	2	3.6	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.25
	2.05	3.6	3.4	Watch
	2.12	3.68	3.54
	2.06	3.51	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3.4
	2.07	3.62	3.43	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.41)	3.56 ↑ (3.47)	3.4 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burton Albion
45.6%

Draw
26.6%

Crawley Town
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

27.2%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

27.3%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Burton Albion's performance.

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crawley Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Burton Albion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crawley Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	22.2%	33.3%

Burton Albion - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Burton will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Crawley will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burton: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Crocombe M. (G) 21. Bannon A. 15. Vancooten T. 6. Sweeney R. 17. Armer J. 4. Watt E. (C) 8. Webster C. 34. Whitfield B. 16. Cooper-Love J. 7. Kalinauskas T. 9. Orsi-Dadomo D.	31. Trueman C. (G) 24. Mullarkey T. 20. Mukena J. 5. Barker C. 7. Forster H. 23. Ibrahim B. 6. Anderson M. 19. Kelly J. 8. Holohan G. 10. Darcy R. (C) 9. Swan W.
Substitutes
32. Bennett M. 11. Bodin B. 49. Donovan R. 2. Godwin-Malife U. 13. Isted H. (G) 19. Williams D.	22. Adeyemo A. 4. Bragg C. 12. Camara P. 14. Hepburn-Murphy R. 21. Sheik J. (G) 29. Showunmi T. 17. Tanimu B.
Coaches
Hounsell T.	Elliot R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Webster C. 🟨,
40', Forster H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Holohan G. ↓, Camara P. ↑,
62', Cooper-Love J. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
67', Whitfield B. ↓, Donovan R. ↑,
70', Armer J. 🟨,
75', Swan W. ↓, Showunmi T. ↑,
75', Kelly J. ↓, Hepburn-Murphy R. ↑,
81', Orsi-Dadomo D. ↓, Godwin-Malife U. ↑,
83', Forster H. ↓, Adeyemo A. ↑,
90+1', Bannon A. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Burton is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Crawley is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Burton will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Burton won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Including matches at home between the teams Burton won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Last Results with these Odds

Crawley Town - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33.66%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burton Albion
English FA Cup
02.11.24	Burton Albion - Scarborough Athletic	1:0 ✺
English League One
26.10.24	Cambridge United - Burton Albion	1:0 ✺
22.10.24	Burton Albion - Wycombe Wanderers	2:3 ✺
19.10.24	Bolton Wanderers - Burton Albion	2:1 ✺
05.10.24	Burton Albion - Bristol Rovers	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL
- Crawley Town
English FA Cup
02.11.24	Maidenhead United - Crawley Town	1:2 ET ✺
English League One
26.10.24	Northampton Town - Crawley Town	3:0 ✺
22.10.24	Crawley Town - Lincoln City	3:0 ✺
19.10.24	Reading - Crawley Town	4:1 ✺
12.10.24	Crawley Town - Shrewsbury Town	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
31.03.12	Burton Albion - Crawley Town	N/A

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