Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: VEB Arena (Moscow) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Levnikov K. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	Q Football Asia, Q Sport Asia
Kosovo	14:00	Arena Premium 1
North Macedonia	14:00	Arena Premium 1
Russia	16:00	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	14:00	Arena Premium 1


	CSKA Moscow		Spartak Moscow

	1	X	2
	3.41	3.80	2.10
	3.35	3.75	2.07
	3.19	3.68	2.19
	3.20	3.55	2.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.54)	3.7 ↑ (3.35)	2.09 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CSKA Moscow
28.9%

Draw
25.7%

Spartak Moscow
45.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.3%

27.5%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

27%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CSKA Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that CSKA Moscow's form might have worsened.

Spartak Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Spartak Moscow's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CSKA Moscow than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for CSKA Moscow, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartak Moscow than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Spartak Moscow, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

CSKA Moscow - Spartak Moscow Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Borisko M. (G) 21. Azzi M. 4. Joao Victor 79. Danilov K. 90. Lukin M. 3. Krugovoy D. 10. Oblyakov I. (C) 31. Kislyak M. 19. Oleynikov I. 17. Glebov K. 11. Musaev T.	98. Maksimenko A. (G) 47. Zobnin R. (C) 68. Litvinov R. 6. Babic S. 33. Parada V. 18. Umyarov N. 7. Solari P. 25. Prutsev D. 5. Barco E. 10. Marquinhos 9. Ugalde M.
Substitutes
23. Abdulkadyrov D. 52. Bandikyan A. 85. Besaev E. (G) 62. Firov I. 37. Henrique Carmo 18. Kozlov D. 7. Matheus Alves 2. Matheus Reis 20. Popovic M. 49. Torop V. (G) 84. Vakulich A. 97. Voronov M.	19. Daku M. 97. Denisov D. 4. Djiku A. 27. Dmitriev I. 56. Dovbnya A. (G) 83. Fernandes G. 24. Massalyga N. 62. Polekh P. 1. Pomazun I. (G) 17. Saus V. 40. Sorokin I. 3. Wooh C.
Coaches
Igdisamov D.	Carcedo J. C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Glebov K. ⚽,
19', Glebov K. 🟨,
24', 2 - 0, Musaev T. ⚽, Krugovoy D. (A),
36', Lukin M. 🟨,
37', Solari P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Joao Victor 🟨,
64', Parada V. ↓, Fernandes G. ↑,
64', Babic S. ↓, Dmitriev I. ↑,
75', Musaev T. ↓, Matheus Reis ↑,
75', Glebov K. ↓, Popovic M. ↑,
75', Zobnin R. ↓, Daku M. ↑,
75', Marquinhos ↓, Denisov D. ↑,
79', Popovic M. 🟨,
85', Oblyakov I. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 5th and 4th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CSKA won 2.

CSKA has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Spartak M is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

CSKA may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for CSKA: Akinfeev I. (Muscle Injury) Barinov D. (Knee Injury) Gajic M. (Knee Injury) Gondou L. (Yellow Cards) Moises (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Spartak M: Martins C. (Muscle Injury) Zorin D. (Achilles Tendon Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, CSKA has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:25 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for CSKA against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 12:9 goals (averaging 1.3:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	CSKA Moscow	12	7	4	1	21:12	9	25
5	Spartak Moscow	12	7	2	3	21:10	11	23

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Spartak Moscow: 11.17% CSKA Moscow: 5.9%

Last Results with these Odds

CSKA Moscow - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.26%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Spartak Moscow - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.26%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSKA Moscow
Russian Premier League
18.10.26	Dynamo Moscow - CSKA Moscow	3:1 ✺
Russian Cup
14.10.26	CSKA Moscow - Rostov	4:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
11.10.26	CSKA Moscow - Rodina Moscow	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.10.26	CSKA Moscow - Arsenal Tula	3:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
17.09.26	Dynamo Makhachkala - CSKA Moscow	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWWW
- FC Spartak Moscow
Russian Premier League
18.10.26	Spartak Moscow - Rubin Kazan	4:0 ✺
Russian Cup
15.10.26	Rodina Moscow - Spartak Moscow	2:4 ✺
Russian Premier League
10.10.26	Krylya Sovetov - Spartak Moscow	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Spartak Moscow - Fakel	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Spartak Moscow - Rostov	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
06.05.26	Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:0
Russian Premier League
22.11.25	Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:0
05.10.25	CSKA Moscow - Spartak Moscow	3:2
26.04.25	Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:2
02.11.24	CSKA Moscow - Spartak Moscow	0:2
25.04.24	CSKA Moscow - Spartak Moscow	0:0
08.10.23	Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow	2:2

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