Match Info

Date: 8 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Referee: Angoula G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video


	Caen		Niort

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.6	5.5	Watch
	1.62	3.7	5.5
	1.55	3.75	6.25
	1.62	3.45	5.4
	1.66	3.72	6.03
	1.62	3.5	5.8	Watch
	1.64	3.72	5.5	Watch
	1.62	3.45	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.71)	3.61 ↑ (3.35)	5.67 ↑ (5.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caen
57.6%

Draw
25.9%

Niort
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

27.6%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

27.5%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Niort has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Niort than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Caen - Niort Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Caen will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Niort will win (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caen: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 8 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

Caen has the most likely position - 7 (8.16%), has project points - 58, has currently - 15, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a small chance of promoted (12%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

Niort has the most likely position - 20 (20.63%), has project points - 37, has currently - 8, has a chance of relegated (50%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 36, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Caen won 3.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

In this match Caen is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Caen won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Caen won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
01.10.22	Caen - Quevilly	0:1 ✺
17.09.22	Grenoble - Caen	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Caen - Amiens	3:1 ✺
02.09.22	Le Havre - Caen	2:1 ✺
30.08.22	Caen - Pau	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLT
- Chamois Niortais FC
French Ligue 2
01.10.22	Niort - Guingamp	0:0 ✺
17.09.22	Amiens - Niort	3:0 ✺
10.09.22	Niort - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
02.09.22	Quevilly - Niort	3:3 ✺
30.08.22	Niort - Valenciennes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
28.01.22	Caen - Niort	0:2
31.07.21	Niort - Caen	0:1
13.02.21	Caen - Niort	1:0
17.10.20	Niort - Caen	3:0
04.02.20	Caen - Niort	4:3
23.08.19	Niort - Caen	1:1
21.02.14	Niort - Caen	0:0

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