Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 10

Date: 26 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4, Moja TV
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Mexico	Caliente TV
Montenegro	Arena Sport 4
Spain	beIN Sports
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
World	Fanatiz


	Caen		Troyes

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	3.9	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.9
	1.85	3.6	4	Watch
	1.94	3.78	4.12
	1.86	3.74	3.86	Watch
	1.83	3.6	3.9
	1.87	3.74	4	Watch
	1.85	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.78)	3.66 ↑ (3.65)	3.96 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 2 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Caen
50.5%

Draw
25.7%

Troyes
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

25.7%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

25.3%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Troyes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Caen - Troyes Predictions

Users Predictions: Caen will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mandrea A. (G) 4. Henry V. 61. Traore B. 29. Thomas R. (C) 28. Lecoeuche Q. 77. Gaucho Debohi D. 91. Ntim E. 20. Lebreton N. 14. Rajot L. 7. Gomis T. 19. Mendy A.	16. Lemaitre N. (G) 17. Mendes H. 6. Monfray A. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 23. Gozzi P. 10. M'Changama Y. 20. Ripart R. 42. Kante A. 24. Adeline M. 11. Said R. 27. Dong K.
Substitutes
23. Autret M. 3. Bolumbu D. 10. Brahimi B. 16. Clementia Y. (G) 18. Coulibaly K. 17. Kyeremeh G. 8. Le Bihan M.	15. Assoumou J. 25. Ba P. I. 1. Boucher Z. (G) 14. Boura I. 28. Fage R. 21. Irie C. 19. Nonge J.
Coaches
Seube N.	Dumont S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Adeline M. 🟨,
30', Ntim E. ↓, Kyeremeh G. ↑,
39', Thomas R. 🟨,
45+2', Rajot L. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Said R. ⚽, M'Changama Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rajot L. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
71', Dong K. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
71', Said R. ↓, Assoumou J. ↑,
74', Lebreton N. ↓, Coulibaly K. ↑,
76', M'Changama Y. ↓, Nonge J. ↑,
79', Gozzi P. 🟥,
82', Adeline M. ↓, Boura I. ↑,
82', Gomis T. ↓, Le Bihan M. ↑,
83', Lecoeuche Q. ↓, Bolumbu D. ↑,
85', Ripart R. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Caen won 0.

Recent matches Caen is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Troyes is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Caen could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Caen is a favorite.

There will not play in Caen: Autret M. (Injury) Bagbema Z. (Injury) M'Vila Y. (Injury) Meddah D. (Injury) Sy L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Troyes: Tahrat M. (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Caen won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:14 (average 0.9:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Caen won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 0.7:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
18.10.24	Red Star - Caen	2:2 ✺
05.10.24	Caen - Lorient	1:2 ✺
30.09.24	Guingamp - Caen	3:1 ✺
24.09.24	Caen - Amiens	2:1 ✺
20.09.24	Caen - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLLWW
- Troyes AC
French Ligue 2
21.10.24	Troyes - Paris FC	0:3 ✺
04.10.24	Dunkerque - Troyes	2:1 ✺
28.09.24	Troyes - Metz	2:1 ✺
24.09.24	Annecy - Troyes	1:0 ✺
20.09.24	Troyes - Rodez	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
27.01.24	Caen - Troyes	0:0
04.11.23	Troyes - Caen	2:1
17.04.21	Troyes - Caen	1:0
12.12.20	Caen - Troyes	0:0
14.02.20	Caen - Troyes	0:1
13.09.19	Troyes - Caen	2:1
French Ligue 1
28.04.18	Troyes - Caen	3:1

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