Match Info

WALES: FA Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Cwrt yr Ala Road (Caerau)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	S4C Clic, S4C


	Caerau Ely		Gap Connahs Quay

	1	X	2
	4.9	4.2	1.52
	4.51	3.86	1.59
	4.84	4.15	1.56	Watch
	5	4.75	1.42
	4.85	4.05	1.55
	4.9	4.2	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.83 ↑ (3.88)	4.2 ↑ (3.92)	1.53 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerau Ely
18.8%

Draw
21.6%

Gap Connahs Quay
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.5%

23.3%

53.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

18.9%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gap Connahs Quay's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caerau Ely, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-16.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gap Connahs Quay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Caerau Ely - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dimoneke E. (G) 5. Ashford J. 7. Bishop L. 2. Davies J. 4. Harrison L. 9. Hywel D. 10. Lewis C. 8. McLean T. 11. Redhead O. 3. Sheppard G. 6. Turner J.	31. Ratcliffe G. (G) 2. Disney J. 10. Durrant S. 6. Edwards K. 14. Edwards N. 17. Hughes R. 7. Kenny J. 3. Marriott Ch. 22. Poole D. 4. Roberts D. 18. Woodcock M.
Substitutes
13. Baker J. (G) 12. Banner J. D. R. 14. McNamara C. 15. Samson H. 16. Sunley P.	11. Bratley C. 12. Mwandwe L. 20. Rushton J. (G) 21. Williams A. 8. Wright O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Kenny J. 🟨,
29', Sheppard G. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Hughes R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bratley C. ↓, Durrant S. ↑,
56', 0 - 2, Edwards N. ⚽,
58', Edwards N. 🟨,
61', Bishop L. ↓, Samson H. ↑,
66', Durrant S. ↓, Williams A. ↑,
79', McLean T. 🟨,
80', Disney J. 🟨,
83', Ashford J. ↓, Banner J. D. R. ↑,
89', Hughes R. ↓, Wright O. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Caerau could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Connahs Quay is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
07.02.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	2:4 ✺
04.02.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	0:1 ✺
25.01.25	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	2:0 ✺
17.01.25	Caerau Ely - Ammanford	2:1 ✺
11.01.25	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWL
- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
08.02.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1 ✺
01.02.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Newtown	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	Flint Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	2:1 ✺
17.01.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Bala Town	0:2 ✺
04.01.25	Pen-y-Bont - Gap Connahs Quay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLLL

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