Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 16

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: The Oval (Caernarfon)

Referee: Jenkins R. (Wal)


	Caernarfon Town		Haverfordwest County

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.05	4.55
	1.61	4.2	4.9
	1.54	4.26	5.00	Watch
	1.59	3.9	4.67
	1.5	4.1	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.54)	4.1 ↓ (4.26)	4.76 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caernarfon Town
58.4%

Draw
22.3%

Haverfordwest County
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

21.7%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

21.3%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caernarfon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Haverfordwest County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Haverfordwest County than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Caernarfon Town - Haverfordwest County Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Caernarfon will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Haverfordwest will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roberts C. (G) 19. Bradley S. 9. Davies A. 17. Downey S. 24. Harrison K. 3. Jones M. 6. Lewis I. 23. Lock J. 5. Mooney P. 2. Owen M. 27. Sears R.	31. Rees L. (G) 3. Abbruzzese R. 28. Ahmun B. 5. Jones A. 20. Jones O. 19. Kenniford K. 11. Makwiramiti P. 17. McCarthy K. 2. Rees D. 8. Shephard C. 7. Watts R.
Substitutes
12. Abadaki O. 21. Evans C. 40. Griffith C. 22. Roberts H. 33. Roberts O. 10. Thomas D. 13. Thomas H. (G)	10. Hawkins D. 24. Humphreys I. 1. Knott I. (G) 14. Owen L. 15. Shepherd T. 21. Watkins A.
Coaches
Davies R.	Pennock T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', McCarthy K. 🟨,
33', Makwiramiti P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Sears R. ↓, Evans C. ↑,
55', Mooney P. 🟨,
58', 1 - 0, Davies A. ⚽,
59', 2 - 0, Bradley S. ⚽,
64', Roberts C. 🟨,
65', 2 - 1, Jones O. ⚽,
65', Kenniford K. ↓, Hawkins D. ↑,
71', Shephard C. 🟨,
73', Jones A. ↓, Humphreys I. ↑,
88', Davies A. ↓, Abadaki O. ↑,
88', Lock J. ↓, Thomas D. ↑,
90+5', Downey S. ↓, Roberts H. ↑,
90+9', 2 - 2, Shephard C. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caernarfon won 0.

Recent performances by Caernarfon have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Haverfordwest has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Caernarfon is considered a favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Caernarfon won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Caernarfon won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caernarfon Town
Welsh League Cup
04.11.25	The New Saints - Caernarfon Town	3:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
01.11.25	Caernarfon Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	4:1 ✺
25.10.25	Pen-y-Bont - Caernarfon Town	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Barry Town United - Caernarfon Town	2:2 ✺
07.10.25	Caernarfon Town - The New Saints	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWTL
- Haverfordwest County
Welsh League Cup
04.11.25	Haverfordwest County - Barry Town United	0:2 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
01.11.25	Haverfordwest County - The New Saints	2:3 ✺
25.10.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Haverfordwest County	3:3 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
17.10.25	Llanelli - Haverfordwest County	3:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
10.10.25	Haverfordwest County - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
30.08.25	Haverfordwest County - Caernarfon Town	1:1
18.05.25	Haverfordwest County - Caernarfon Town	3:1
29.03.25	Haverfordwest County - Caernarfon Town	1:1
08.02.25	Caernarfon Town - Haverfordwest County	1:1
26.10.24	Haverfordwest County - Caernarfon Town	0:0
17.08.24	Caernarfon Town - Haverfordwest County	1:2
16.12.23	Caernarfon Town - Haverfordwest County	0:1

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