Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 32

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini (Verona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Caldiero Terme		Novara

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.3
	2.9	3.15	2.4
	2.95	3.13	2.46	Watch
	3	2.9	2.38
	2.9	3.04	2.36	Watch
	2.9	3.15	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.6)	3.08 ↑ (3)	2.38 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldiero Terme
31.7%

Draw
29.8%

Novara
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

29.4%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

29.1%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caldiero Terme has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Novara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldiero Terme than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Caldiero Terme - Novara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Giacomel A. (G) 13. Pelagatti C. 33. Mazzolo F. 24. Gobetti N. 20. Florio M. 8. Filiciotto A. (C) 4. Gattoni T. 14. Pelamatti A. 10. Fasan N. 90. Scappini S. 97. Cazzadori D.	1. Minelli S. (G) 26. Lorenzini F. 5. Bertoncini D. 15. Khailoti O. 10. Donadio C. 19. Calcagni R. 99. Basso G. 21. Ranieri R. (C) 72. Agyemang G. 90. Ganz S. 9. Asencio R.
Substitutes
91. Aldegheri L. (G) 9. Caccavo L. 85. Cisse O. 15. Gecchele P. 22. Kuqi O. (G) 29. Lanzi E. 11. Marras T. 28. Molnar I. 26. Mondini G. 44. Nessi R. 3. Parodi G. 21. Rihai A. 47. Squarzoni S. A. 7. Zerbato L.	18. Akpa-Chukwu H. 6. Anzolin M. 28. Cannavaro A. 31. Desjardins A. (G) 8. Di Munno A. 16. Gagliardi L. 7. Gerardini F. 25. Leo 29. Maressa T. 12. Negri E. (G) 11. Palsson A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Scappini S. (Pen),
42', Mazzolo F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Khailoti O. 🟨,
57', Mazzolo F. ↓, Gecchele P. ↑,
58', Pelamatti A. 🟨,
62', Ranieri R. ↓, Di Munno A. ↑,
62', Basso G. ↓, Gerardini F. ↑,
62', Khailoti O. ↓, Anzolin M. ↑,
64', Scappini S. ↓, Marras T. ↑,
64', Marras T. 🟨,
65', Florio M. ↓, Mondini G. ↑,
67', Gerardini F. 🟨,
73', Asencio R. ↓, Akpa-Chukwu H. ↑,
74', Mondini G. 🟥,
80', Minelli S. 🟨,
80', 2 - 0, Filiciotto A. (Pen),
81', Cazzadori D. ↓, Nessi R. ↑,
82', Fasan N. ↓, Caccavo L. ↑,
86', Agyemang G. ↓, Maressa T. ↑,
90+6', Calcagni R. 🟥,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 11).

Caldiero Terme is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Novara is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Novara could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Caldiero Terme: Baldani N. (Inactive) Crespi G. M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Novara: Ghiringhelli L. (Injury) da Graca C. (Red Card)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Caldiero Terme won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caldiero Terme
Italian Serie C Group A
13.03.25	Giana Erminio - Caldiero Terme	3:1 ✺
09.03.25	Caldiero Terme - Renate	2:2 ✺
01.03.25	Pro Patria - Caldiero Terme	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Caldiero Terme - FeralpiSalò	2:3 ✺
17.02.25	Virtus Verona - Caldiero Terme	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTTLL
- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
13.03.25	Vicenza Virtus - Novara	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Novara - Giana Erminio	0:1 ✺
02.03.25	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Novara - Renate	1:0 ✺
15.02.25	Pergolettese - Novara	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
02.11.24	Novara - Caldiero Terme	3:1

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